Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>We continue to expect five index changes for September 2026 and we currently estimate one-way flows ~US$153mn.</li>
<li>The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 21st August 2026.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
We continue to expect five index changes for September 2026 and we currently estimate one-way flows ~US$153mn.
The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 21st August 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep26: Announcement in Two Weeks; 5 Changes Likely

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> listed on 9 January and was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June.</li>
<li>As a security with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading on 6 August.</li>
<li>The stock is trading 80% lower from its highs and there should be a lot of interest from mainland investors.</li>
</ul>



MiniMax (100 HK) listed on 9 January and was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June.
As a security with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), MiniMax (100 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading on 6 August.
The stock is trading 80% lower from its highs and there should be a lot of interest from mainland investors.


MiniMax (100 HK): Stock Connect Buying Starts Today

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Connect inclusion. We expect MiniMax (100 HK) to enter southbound Stock Connect on 6 Aug 2026 after exchange announcements before the open.</li>
<li>Southbound demand. We use Zhipu's (2513 HK) post-inclusion southbound accumulation as the closest precedent for MiniMax.</li>
<li>Revision, tokens and re-rating. Revenue upgrades are running ahead of share supply. OpenRouter data suggest a valuation gap vs Zhipu.</li>
</ul>


Connect inclusion. We expect MiniMax (100 HK) to enter southbound Stock Connect on 6 Aug 2026 after exchange announcements before the open.
Southbound demand. We use Zhipu's (2513 HK) post-inclusion southbound accumulation as the closest precedent for MiniMax.
Revision, tokens and re-rating. Revenue upgrades are running ahead of share supply. OpenRouter data suggest a valuation gap vs Zhipu.


MINIMAX-W: Pre-Connect Inclusion Update and Positioning

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic's leaked S-1 shows revenue scaling $400m (FY24) to $4.6bn (FY25) to $11.5bn in Q2 2026 alone — but $518bn of non-cancelable compute commitments dwarf the last $965bn private mark.</li>
<li>Anthropic's ~1.8x operating-loss-to-revenue ratio beats Zhipu's ~6.5x and MiniMax's ~3.2x — better unit economics than either listed China AI name, though customer concentration remains the key risk.</li>
<li>No formal call on Anthropic or OpenAI — IPO timeline and audited financials aren't out yet; we reiterate BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340) and NEUTRAL Z.AI/Zhipu (FV HK$1,000).</li>
</ul>


Anthropic's leaked S-1 shows revenue scaling $400m (FY24) to $4.6bn (FY25) to $11.5bn in Q2 2026 alone — but $518bn of non-cancelable compute commitments dwarf the last $965bn private mark.
Anthropic's ~1.8x operating-loss-to-revenue ratio beats Zhipu's ~6.5x and MiniMax's ~3.2x — better unit economics than either listed China AI name, though customer concentration remains the key risk.
No formal call on Anthropic or OpenAI — IPO timeline and audited financials aren't out yet; we reiterate BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340) and NEUTRAL Z.AI/Zhipu (FV HK$1,000).


Anthropic's Leaked S-1 Vs. China's AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The popularity of MiniMax is significantly higher than Zhipu, as the C-end model has greater growth potential and a more attractive valuation logic than the B-end model of Zhipu. </li>
<li>MiniMax has not yet proven its profit model at present. There is risk of overvaluation. We think current valuation level may have partially overdrawn future expectations on MiniMax.</li>
<li>2025 net loss would expand. An optimistic prediction is if MiniMax’s net loss narrows in 2026, it will be a crucial positive signal, indicating that its profit model is working.</li>
</ul>


The popularity of MiniMax is significantly higher than Zhipu, as the C-end model has greater growth potential and a more attractive valuation logic than the B-end model of Zhipu. 
MiniMax has not yet proven its profit model at present. There is risk of overvaluation. We think current valuation level may have partially overdrawn future expectations on MiniMax.
2025 net loss would expand. An optimistic prediction is if MiniMax’s net loss narrows in 2026, it will be a crucial positive signal, indicating that its profit model is working.


MiniMax Group (100 HK) - There Is "Bubble" In Valuation

China

MiniMax Group is an artificial intelligence company that develops multimodal AI models and consumer applications. Its offerings include AI character apps like Talkie and Xingye, and video-generation services such as Hailuo AI. The company also creates proprietary foundation models capable of understanding, generating, and integrating various modalities including text, audio, images, video, and music. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, MiniMax was founded in December 2021.

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MiniMax (100 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep26: Announcement in Two Weeks; 5 Changes Likely

On average, the expected ADDs have sharply underperformed the expected DELs in the last 1 month. This has been the case with many index rebal...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MiniMax (100 HK): Stock Connect Buying Starts Today

MiniMax listed on 9 January and was added to the HSCI in June. As a WVR security, MiniMax will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start...

Brian Freitas

MINIMAX-W: Pre-Connect Inclusion Update and Positioning

MiniMax is approaching Southbound Stock Connect inclusion with Zhipu as the closest precedent. We analyze the trade prior to exchange announcement.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Anthropic's Leaked S-1 Vs. China's AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question

Leaked S-1: Anthropic out-grows and out-earns China's listed AI names, but a $518bn spend commitment and a >$2tn ask we can't fathom valuing keep...

Mo Aziz

MiniMax Group (100 HK) - There Is "Bubble" In Valuation

After the insight was published, share price of Minimax has dropped by 39%. This is far from over. The AI valuation bubble cannot be sustained by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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