HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-toy-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45838:1" rel="noopener">TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK)</a> is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.</li>
<li>It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> but a discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK) is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.
It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK). 
We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to Bloks Group (325 HK) but a discount to Pop Mart (9992 HK). 


TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.</li>
<li>
This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.</li>
</ul>



Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.

This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. 

Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>Dongfeng has now released the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof for VOYAH</a>, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.</li>
<li>The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.</li>
</ul>


On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.


Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>, JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. </li>
<li>HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.</li>
<li>The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.
The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.


Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will be added to both the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) — effective Monday, September 8, 2025.</li>
<li>Beyond the tail winds from this technical upgrade, stock's further upside rests on investor conviction on its potential to continue to deliver strong growth beyond the short term.</li>
<li>Pop Mart’s near term growth rests on proving IP durability and executing global scale-up.</li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to both the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) — effective Monday, September 8, 2025.
Beyond the tail winds from this technical upgrade, stock's further upside rests on investor conviction on its potential to continue to deliver strong growth beyond the short term.
Pop Mart’s near term growth rests on proving IP durability and executing global scale-up.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): Index Inclusion & Beyond. Toy Craze or Emerging ACG Play?

China

MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, retails home decor, small electronics, textile, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care, snacks, fragrance and perfumes, and stationery and gifts. MINISO Group Holding serves customers worldwide.

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MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)

TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Index Inclusion & Beyond. Toy Craze or Emerging ACG Play?

Pop Mart trades less like a toy maker and more like an ACG aspirant. Whether that valuation is justified depends on management’s ability to prove...

Devi Subhakesan

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TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

​TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

​Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Index Inclusion & Beyond. Toy Craze or Emerging ACG Play?

Pop Mart trades less like a toy maker and more like an ACG aspirant. Whether that valuation is justified depends on management’s ability to prove...

Devi Subhakesan

TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.