HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.</li>
<li>Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-financial-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35926:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP)</a>. </li>
<li>The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are - Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP). 
The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.


Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen. </p>
<p>In the upcoming webinar, Allis will share a short company presentation after which, she will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/andy-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48091" rel="noopener">Andy Fu</a>. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&amp;A session.</p>
<h3>The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 20 June 2024, 16:00 SGT.</h3>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=89416289383" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
<h3>About Miniso Group Holding Limited</h3>
<p>Miniso Group Holding Limited is a global value retailer offering a variety of trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design. Since Miniso Group opened its first store in China in 2013, they have successfully incubated two brands, “MINISO” and “TOP TOY”. The flagship brand “MINISO” is a globally recognized retail brand and have established a store network worldwide of 6,630 stores in more than 200 countries. The flagship brand “MINISO” offers a frequently-refreshed assortment of lifestyle products covering diverse consumer needs, and consumers are attracted to their products’ trendiness, creativeness, high quality and affordability.</p>

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen. 
In the upcoming webinar, Allis will share a short company presentation after which, she will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Andy Fu. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&amp;A session.
The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 20 June 2024, 16:00 SGT.


Register for the Webinar here


About Miniso Group Holding Limited
Miniso Group Holding Limited is a global value retailer offering a variety of trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design. Since Miniso Group opened its first store in China in 2013, they have successfully incubated two brands, “MINISO” and “TOP TOY”. The flagship brand “MINISO” is a globally recognized retail brand and have established a store network worldwide of 6,630 stores in more than 200 countries. The flagship brand “MINISO” offers a frequently-refreshed assortment of lifestyle products covering diverse consumer needs, and consumers are attracted to their products’ trendiness, creativeness, high quality and affordability.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Miniso: Leveraging China's Manufacturing Capacity for the Global Market

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

<ul>
  <li>
<b>Aggressive Global Expansion:</b> MINISO is pursuing a rapid global store expansion strategy, aiming to open 900-1,100 new stores annually between 2024 and 2028, with a significant focus on overseas markets. This is a core pillar of its plan to drive revenue growth and enhance its international brand presence.</li>
  <li>
<b>IP Co-branding Strategy Drives Differentiation:</b> A key competitive advantage is the company's 'Super IP Strategy,' involving collaborations with over 150 well-known IP holders like Disney, Sanrio, and Barbie. This strategy not only differentiates its product offerings but also resonates with its target demographic of younger consumers, driving sales and brand loyalty.</li>
  <li>
<b>Asset-Light Model Supports Rapid Growth and Profitability:</b> The company primarily utilizes a franchise and retail partner model, which allows for rapid expansion with lower capital investment. This, combined with an efficient, digitized supply chain that connects directly with manufacturers, enables competitive pricing, high inventory turnover, and strong cash conversion.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Aggressive Global Expansion: MINISO is pursuing a rapid global store expansion strategy, aiming to open 900-1,100 new stores annually between 2024 and 2028, with a significant focus on overseas markets. This is a core pillar of its plan to drive revenue growth and enhance its international brand presence.
  
IP Co-branding Strategy Drives Differentiation: A key competitive advantage is the company's 'Super IP Strategy,' involving collaborations with over 150 well-known IP holders like Disney, Sanrio, and Barbie. This strategy not only differentiates its product offerings but also resonates with its target demographic of younger consumers, driving sales and brand loyalty.
  
Asset-Light Model Supports Rapid Growth and Profitability: The company primarily utilizes a franchise and retail partner model, which allows for rapid expansion with lower capital investment. This, combined with an efficient, digitized supply chain that connects directly with manufacturers, enables competitive pricing, high inventory turnover, and strong cash conversion.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: MINISO Group Holding  (9896 HK) - Apr 2026

China

MINISO is a global retailer and variety store chain specializing in design-led lifestyle and pop toy products. The company offers a wide range of household and consumer goods, including cosmetics, stationery, toys, kitchenware, home decor, and electronics, often featuring intellectual property (IP) collaborations. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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MINISO (9896 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

Spin Offs and Non-Core Asset divestments have delivered outsized returns for shareholders of several SGX listed stocks over the past year - here...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Miniso: Leveraging China's Manufacturing Capacity for the Global Market

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen.

Smartkarma Research

Primer: MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) - Apr 2026

Aggressive Global Expansion: MINISO is pursuing a rapid global store expansion strategy, aiming to open 900-1,100 new stores annually between...

αSK Primers

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

Spin Offs and Non-Core Asset divestments have delivered outsized returns for shareholders of several SGX listed stocks over the past year - here...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Miniso: Leveraging China's Manufacturing Capacity for the Global Market

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Miniso Group Holding Limited’s Investor Relation Specialist, Ms. Allis-Yueling Chen.

Smartkarma Research

Primer: MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) - Apr 2026

Aggressive Global Expansion: MINISO is pursuing a rapid global store expansion strategy, aiming to open 900-1,100 new stores annually between...

αSK Primers

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...