Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.</li>
<li>Those who want to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial (8729 JP)</a> may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> is fully valued as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK) </a> trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. </li>
</ul>


The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.

Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/6isxm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In</a>, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.</li>
<li>A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. </li>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. </li>
</ul>


In MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. 
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. 


Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO</a>  has confirmed that it is considering a possible spin-off listing of TOP TOY, its pop toy division, signalling its intent to unlock value from its collectible toy business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a>, the leading player in the pop toy retail segment, is trading at nearly 50x forward earnings compared to Miniso's 13.5x forward P/E.</li>
<li>TOP TOY is in an early stage of its growth curve compared to Pop Mart and could be valued at a discount given notably lower operating margins.</li>
</ul>



MINISO  has confirmed that it is considering a possible spin-off listing of TOP TOY, its pop toy division, signalling its intent to unlock value from its collectible toy business.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK), the leading player in the pop toy retail segment, is trading at nearly 50x forward earnings compared to Miniso's 13.5x forward P/E.
TOP TOY is in an early stage of its growth curve compared to Pop Mart and could be valued at a discount given notably lower operating margins.


Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

China

MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, retails home decor, small electronics, textile, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care, snacks, fragrance and perfumes, and stationery and gifts. MINISO Group Holding serves customers worldwide.

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MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

TOP TOY listing could boost Miniso stock - Value Unlock potential TOP TOY, Miniso's designer toy subsidiary, has filed a listing application with...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

TOP TOY listing could boost Miniso stock - Value Unlock potential TOP TOY, Miniso's designer toy subsidiary, has filed a listing application with...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...