Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)

<ul>
<li>KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.</li>
<li>Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.</li>
<li>JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.</li>
</ul>


KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We met with the management of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.</li>
<li>Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.</li>
<li>The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. </li>
</ul>


We met with the management of Dream International (1126 HK) in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.
Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.
The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. 


Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Delivery /: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War</li><li>Environment /In Depth: Why ‘Green Tides’ Keep Rolling Into East China</li><li>Drugmakers /In Depth: Disputed Sinovac Chairman Struggles to Retain Control Amid Multibillion-Dollar Dividend Payouts</li></ul>

Delivery /: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy WarEnvironment /In Depth: Why ‘Green Tides’ Keep Rolling Into East ChinaDrugmakers /In Depth: Disputed Sinovac Chairman Struggles to Retain Control Amid Multibillion-Dollar Dividend Payouts

CX Daily: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War 

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Macro Update: NDRC Reiterates Incremental Policies Are in Preparation (+)</li>
<li>LI US: Li Auto Announces Free Charging and Road Rescue Services for May Holiday(-)</li>
<li>MNSO US/601933 CH:Yonghui Superstores 1Q25 Revenue and Net Profit Decline 19% and 80% YoY(-/-)</li>
</ul>


Macro Update: NDRC Reiterates Incremental Policies Are in Preparation (+)
LI US: Li Auto Announces Free Charging and Road Rescue Services for May Holiday(-)
MNSO US/601933 CH:Yonghui Superstores 1Q25 Revenue and Net Profit Decline 19% and 80% YoY(-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Miniso (MNSO US)

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

Meeting summary with the Dream International (1126 HK) management in Hong Kong. Recent share pullback values stock at ~8.9x P/E with a ~6.2%...

Sameer Taneja

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War

Delivery /: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War Environment /In Depth: Why ‘Green Tides’ Keep Rolling Into East...

Caixin Global

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

NDRC is preparing incremental policies, Li Auto offers free services for May holiday, Yonghui Superstores sees decline in revenue and profit.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

Meeting summary with the Dream International (1126 HK) management in Hong Kong. Recent share pullback values stock at ~8.9x P/E with a ~6.2%...

Sameer Taneja

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War

Delivery /: China’s Regulator Ramps Up Push to Curb Food Delivery Subsidy War Environment /In Depth: Why ‘Green Tides’ Keep Rolling Into East...

Caixin Global

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

​NDRC is preparing incremental policies, Li Auto offers free services for May holiday, Yonghui Superstores sees decline in revenue and profit.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

NDRC is preparing incremental policies, Li Auto offers free services for May holiday, Yonghui Superstores sees decline in revenue and profit.