Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. </li>
<li>We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.</li>
</ul>


We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. 
We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.


[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

<ul>
<li>Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. </li>
<li>Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS</li>
</ul>


Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

<ul>
<li>Intra-Urban mobility in major cities and foot traffic in leading shopping malls in China have demonstrated decent growth during 2024 CNY holiday period.</li>
<li>We estimate Miniso domestic store sales increased 35% yoy during CNY-holiday and 11% yoy during Jan to mid-Feb 2024. We expect Miniso total revenue to increase 26% yoy in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and maintain TP at US$33/ADS.</li>
</ul>


Intra-Urban mobility in major cities and foot traffic in leading shopping malls in China have demonstrated decent growth during 2024 CNY holiday period.
We estimate Miniso domestic store sales increased 35% yoy during CNY-holiday and 11% yoy during Jan to mid-Feb 2024. We expect Miniso total revenue to increase 26% yoy in 1Q24.
We maintain the stock as BUY and maintain TP at US$33/ADS.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

<ul>
<li>We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...</li>
<li>We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.</li>
</ul>


We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...
We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.


[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After hitting the bottom during the COVID crisis, the only direction left for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US)</a> to move is up.</li>
<li>Given the current valuations, Miniso could generate multi-bagger returns during favourable market conditions.</li>
<li>In addition, Miniso could help investors generate sizable returns in the short-term on the short side with increased short exposure to Chinese E-commerce.</li>
</ul>


After hitting the bottom during the COVID crisis, the only direction left for MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) to move is up.
Given the current valuations, Miniso could generate multi-bagger returns during favourable market conditions.
In addition, Miniso could help investors generate sizable returns in the short-term on the short side with increased short exposure to Chinese E-commerce.


Miniso: Genuinely Undervalued & A Decent Long Hedge to Increase Short Exposure to Chinese E-Commerce

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Miniso: Genuinely Undervalued & A Decent Long Hedge to Increase Short Exposure to Chinese E-Commerce

It might take some time for Miniso to generate multi-bagger returns on a stand-alone basis, but it could still help investors generate sizable...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

​Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

​Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

​Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

​Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Miniso: Genuinely Undervalued & A Decent Long Hedge to Increase Short Exposure to Chinese E-Commerce

It might take some time for Miniso to generate multi-bagger returns on a stand-alone basis, but it could still help investors generate sizable...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...