Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...</li>
<li>We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.</li>
</ul>


We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...
We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.


[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

<ul>
<li>MNSO management hosted a conference call today which reiterated normal operation of business, guided C4Q23 revenue above consensus, gross margin up QoQ, and non-GAAP net profit margin stable;</li>
<li>MNSO management refuted short seller’s thesis, commented distributor inventory levels at healthy levels and provided backgrounds on disclosed insider share sales;</li>
<li>We welcome MNSO management’s timely communication and believe its business model to be solid. We reiterate BUY and TP.</li>
</ul>


MNSO management hosted a conference call today which reiterated normal operation of business, guided C4Q23 revenue above consensus, gross margin up QoQ, and non-GAAP net profit margin stable;
MNSO management refuted short seller’s thesis, commented distributor inventory levels at healthy levels and provided backgrounds on disclosed insider share sales;
We welcome MNSO management’s timely communication and believe its business model to be solid. We reiterate BUY and TP.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

<ul>
<li>MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. </li>
<li>However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;</li>
<li>Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.</li>
</ul>


MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. 
However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;
Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;</li>
<li>We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.</li>
</ul>


MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;
We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;
We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.


[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). </li>
<li>A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>, and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. </li>
<li>Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). 
A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is Miniso (MNSO US), and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. 
Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Pop Mart (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas.

Steve

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

​Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

​MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

​MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Pop Mart (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas.

Steve

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...