China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Miniso reported its C4Q22 revenue at RMB2,494mn, (2.6%)/1.1% vs. our estimate/consensus,  non-GAAP net income at RMB373mn, 27.8%/29.0% higher than our estimate/consensus; </li>
<li>We expect Miniso’s revenue to achieve 33% YoY in C2023, driven by 1) the store expansion in both domestic and overseas market, 2) domestic single store revenue recovered;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raise TP by US$2 to US$24, reflecting Miniso’s expansion of domestic store network in low tier cities</li>
</ul>


Miniso reported its C4Q22 revenue at RMB2,494mn, (2.6%)/1.1% vs. our estimate/consensus,  non-GAAP net income at RMB373mn, 27.8%/29.0% higher than our estimate/consensus; 
We expect Miniso’s revenue to achieve 33% YoY in C2023, driven by 1) the store expansion in both domestic and overseas market, 2) domestic single store revenue recovered;
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raise TP by US$2 to US$24, reflecting Miniso’s expansion of domestic store network in low tier cities


[Miniso Group (MNSO US) Target Price Change]: 2023 Catalyst Is Store Expansion, Raise TP to US$24

<ul>
<li>We expect Miniso to report C4Q22 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 1.7%, (1.5%) and in-line vs. consensus. Our C1Q23 top line is 3.7% vs. the consensus; </li>
<li>MNSO’s sustained growth driver to be bringing Made-In-China merchandises to the mall economies around the world; We re-evaluate the stock and maintain the Buy rating, with TP at US$22.</li>
<li>The downward revisions of EPADS：1) slower offline resumption pace from Covid impact in 2022, 2) rescheduled oversea expansion paces, compared to our previous update on Nov. 23rd, 2021.</li>
</ul>


We expect Miniso to report C4Q22 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 1.7%, (1.5%) and in-line vs. consensus. Our C1Q23 top line is 3.7% vs. the consensus; 
MNSO’s sustained growth driver to be bringing Made-In-China merchandises to the mall economies around the world; We re-evaluate the stock and maintain the Buy rating, with TP at US$22.
The downward revisions of EPADS：1) slower offline resumption pace from Covid impact in 2022, 2) rescheduled oversea expansion paces, compared to our previous update on Nov. 23rd, 2021.


[Miniso(MNSO US, BUY, TP US$22) Earnings Preview]: Bring Made-In-China to the World’s Mall Economies

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

<ul>
<li>On 26th Aug 2022, PCAOB and CSRC announced that they had entered into an agreement granting US authorities access to investigate public accounting firms headquartered in China and HK.</li>
<li>On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.</li>
</ul>


On 26th Aug 2022, PCAOB and CSRC announced that they had entered into an agreement granting US authorities access to investigate public accounting firms headquartered in China and HK.
On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning - Non-HK Listed ADRs Are Already Outperforming

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Blue Orca issued a damning short-seller report on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a> on the 25th of July 2022, stating that the company’s asset-light and high-margin franchise business is mostly a lie.</li>
<li>Miniso responded rather quickly but its response lacks evidence and does not do anything to contradict the facts presented by the short seller.</li>
<li>Thus, it is Miniso’s word against Blue Ocra’s facts and it is quite obvious which side investors should take.</li>
</ul>


Blue Orca issued a damning short-seller report on Miniso (MNSO US) on the 25th of July 2022, stating that the company’s asset-light and high-margin franchise business is mostly a lie.
Miniso responded rather quickly but its response lacks evidence and does not do anything to contradict the facts presented by the short seller.
Thus, it is Miniso’s word against Blue Ocra’s facts and it is quite obvious which side investors should take.


Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso Group (MNSO US) Target Price Change]: 2023 Catalyst Is Store Expansion, Raise TP to US$24

We expect Miniso’s revenue to achieve 33% YoY in C2023, driven by 1) the store expansion in both domestic and overseas market, 2) domestic single...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso(MNSO US, BUY, TP US$22) Earnings Preview]: Bring Made-In-China to the World’s Mall Economies

We view MNSO’s sustained growth driver to be bringing Made-In-China merchandises to the mall economies around the world; We re-evaluate the stock...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning - Non-HK Listed ADRs Are Already Outperforming

On 26th Aug 2022, PCAOB and CSRC announced that they had entered into an agreement granting US authorities access to investigate public accounting...

Sumeet Singh

Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts

Blue Orca’s rebuttal to Miniso’s response seems fair given that Miniso’s responses are without any supporting evidence. Since it is Miniso’s word...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)