IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). </li>
<li>The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 


Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I will have its entire 7-11 chain online by 2025 and could use the service to bind all its food retail assets into a more coherent whole. </li>
<li>Rivals are doing the same thing through Uber Eats and other services, but Seven thinks its proprietary system will provide a long term advantage, especially in ease of use.</li>
<li>While Q-commerce deliveries from CVS are growing, the inherent proximity of stores to homes suggests an online adjunct is sub-optimal – but will be ideal for Seven's "new" SIP format.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I will have its entire 7-11 chain online by 2025 and could use the service to bind all its food retail assets into a more coherent whole. 
Rivals are doing the same thing through Uber Eats and other services, but Seven thinks its proprietary system will provide a long term advantage, especially in ease of use.
While Q-commerce deliveries from CVS are growing, the inherent proximity of stores to homes suggests an online adjunct is sub-optimal – but will be ideal for Seven's "new" SIP format.


Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Convenience store retailing was one of the worst hit retail sectors during Covid as commuters and students stayed at home. Recovery has taken time but is on track. </li>
<li>Recovery aside, however, the sector has reached saturation, so the only way to grow is to maximise traffic to stores and the amount each customer spends.</li>
<li>This is forcing unprecedented innovation on a sector already famous for it but it won't be enough to generate the growth rates of the past.</li>
</ul>


Convenience store retailing was one of the worst hit retail sectors during Covid as commuters and students stayed at home. Recovery has taken time but is on track. 
Recovery aside, however, the sector has reached saturation, so the only way to grow is to maximise traffic to stores and the amount each customer spends.
This is forcing unprecedented innovation on a sector already famous for it but it won't be enough to generate the growth rates of the past.


Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Japan

MINISTOP CO., LTD. operates convenience stores primarily in the Kanto and the Chubu areas of Japan.  The Company sells fast foods, daily dishes, processed foods, home necessities, and magazines.  Ministop is affiliated with Aeon Co., Ltd.

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Ministop Co Ltd (9946 JP)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Seven & I may finally have turned the corner and found an e-commerce solution that works. If it has, the potential to roll it out beyond just the...

Michael Causton

Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

Japanese convenience stores are innovative, relentless competitors. It is just a shame the sector is at saturation. While there is growth potential...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Seven & I may finally have turned the corner and found an e-commerce solution that works. If it has, the potential to roll it out beyond just the...

Michael Causton

Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

Japanese convenience stores are innovative, relentless competitors. It is just a shame the sector is at saturation. While there is growth potential...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...