Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The four largest convenience stores all had varying results last year, two setting records for high profits, and the other two seeing worrying shortfalls. </li>
<li>The biggest differentiating factor was how each handled the problem of inflation, either through lower prices or by offering added value.</li>
<li>Unfortunately, Seven Eleven was the worst performer of the big three, still suffering from a price perception problem and lower levels of innovation compared to Lawson and Familymart.</li>
</ul>


The four largest convenience stores all had varying results last year, two setting records for high profits, and the other two seeing worrying shortfalls. 
The biggest differentiating factor was how each handled the problem of inflation, either through lower prices or by offering added value.
Unfortunately, Seven Eleven was the worst performer of the big three, still suffering from a price perception problem and lower levels of innovation compared to Lawson and Familymart.


Conbini Winning by Adding Value but Not Seven Eleven

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. </li>
<li>Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.</li>
<li>This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't <em>egregiously</em> wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. 
Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and Aeon Delight (9787 JP) will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.
This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.


Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). </li>
<li>The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 


Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I will have its entire 7-11 chain online by 2025 and could use the service to bind all its food retail assets into a more coherent whole. </li>
<li>Rivals are doing the same thing through Uber Eats and other services, but Seven thinks its proprietary system will provide a long term advantage, especially in ease of use.</li>
<li>While Q-commerce deliveries from CVS are growing, the inherent proximity of stores to homes suggests an online adjunct is sub-optimal – but will be ideal for Seven's "new" SIP format.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I will have its entire 7-11 chain online by 2025 and could use the service to bind all its food retail assets into a more coherent whole. 
Rivals are doing the same thing through Uber Eats and other services, but Seven thinks its proprietary system will provide a long term advantage, especially in ease of use.
While Q-commerce deliveries from CVS are growing, the inherent proximity of stores to homes suggests an online adjunct is sub-optimal – but will be ideal for Seven's "new" SIP format.


Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Japan

MINISTOP CO., LTD. operates convenience stores primarily in the Kanto and the Chubu areas of Japan.  The Company sells fast foods, daily dishes, processed foods, home necessities, and magazines.  Ministop is affiliated with Aeon Co., Ltd.

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Ministop Co Ltd (9946 JP)

Conbini Winning by Adding Value but Not Seven Eleven

Four largest convenience stores had mixed results last year due to handling of inflation; Seven Eleven lagged behind due to price perception and...

Michael Causton

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Seven & I may finally have turned the corner and found an e-commerce solution that works. If it has, the potential to roll it out beyond just the...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Conbini Winning by Adding Value but Not Seven Eleven

​Four largest convenience stores had mixed results last year due to handling of inflation; Seven Eleven lagged behind due to price perception and...

Michael Causton

Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Aeon has announced a Tender Offer for facilities maintenance subsidiary Aeon Delight. It's an all-time high, but the TOB Premium on Aeon Delight is...

Travis Lundy

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I Finally Making E-Commerce Work? 7Now at 5,000 Stores and Perfect for SIP

Seven & I may finally have turned the corner and found an e-commerce solution that works. If it has, the potential to roll it out beyond just the...

Michael Causton

Four largest convenience stores had mixed results last year due to handling of inflation; Seven Eleven lagged behind due to price perception and...

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...