Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

<ul><li>We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.</li><li>We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.</li><li>CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. </li></ul>

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. 

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MINT reported a 2Q24 core profit of Bt3.2bn (+8% YoY and a turnaround from the loss of Bt352mn in 1Q24), slightly below our projection by 6% due to a narrower-than-expected GPM from hotels.</li><li>We anticipate an improvement in 2H24E core profit, driven by the high season in Europe and the beginning of the peak tourism season in Thailand in 4Q24E.</li><li>We project two-year earnings growth (2024-26E) at a CAGR of +11%. </li></ul>

MINT reported a 2Q24 core profit of Bt3.2bn (+8% YoY and a turnaround from the loss of Bt352mn in 1Q24), slightly below our projection by 6% due to a narrower-than-expected GPM from hotels.We anticipate an improvement in 2H24E core profit, driven by the high season in Europe and the beginning of the peak tourism season in Thailand in 4Q24E.We project two-year earnings growth (2024-26E) at a CAGR of +11%. 

Minor International - In-Line 2Q24 Core Profit

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on MINT with an Outperform rating and a 12-month FV of Bt39.25, based on the 12M earnings yield of 3.6%.</li><li>Our valuation metrics indicate significant upside of +33%, with core EPS growth of +11% expected during 2024-26E as RevPAR should surpass pre-COVID levels.</li><li>However, the tactical view is neutral.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on MINT with an Outperform rating and a 12-month FV of Bt39.25, based on the 12M earnings yield of 3.6%.Our valuation metrics indicate significant upside of +33%, with core EPS growth of +11% expected during 2024-26E as RevPAR should surpass pre-COVID levels.However, the tactical view is neutral.

Minor International - Entering the High Season in 2-3Q24E

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.</li>
<li>While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.</li>
<li>Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.
While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.
Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Minor International (MINT TB), and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

Thailand

Minor International PCL is a global company focused on three primary businesses including restaurants, hotels and lifestyle brands distribution.

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Minor International (MINT TB)

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

Minor International - In-Line 2Q24 Core Profit

We anticipate an improvement in 2H24E core profit, driven by the high season in Europe and the beginning of the peak tourism season in Thailand in...

Krungthai XSpring

Minor International - Entering the High Season in 2-3Q24E

We initiate our coverage on MINT with an Outperform rating and a 12-month FV of Bt39.25, based on the 12M earnings yield of 3.6%.

Krungthai XSpring

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

Minor International - In-Line 2Q24 Core Profit

We anticipate an improvement in 2H24E core profit, driven by the high season in Europe and the beginning of the peak tourism season in Thailand in...

Krungthai XSpring

Minor International - Entering the High Season in 2-3Q24E

We initiate our coverage on MINT with an Outperform rating and a 12-month FV of Bt39.25, based on the 12M earnings yield of 3.6%.

Krungthai XSpring

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

​Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.