Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/868/original/Chart2.Australia.Risk_.Pref_.png?1467594254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9868"><figcaption class="figcaption">Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica)</figcaption></figure> Speculation that Australia will lose its <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-the-trafficjam-political-culture-threatening-aaa-credit-rating-20160703-gpxil9" target="_blank">AAA rating</a> due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/" target="_blank">the final downgrade</a> to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica) Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> IE considers Brookfield and GIC’s scheme offer at A$2.80 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation of A$2.72 to A$2.86.</li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder, FIRB and OIO approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low-risk.</li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for an 8 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/6.8%.</li>
</ul>


The National Storage REIT (NSR AU) IE considers Brookfield and GIC’s scheme offer at A$2.80 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation of A$2.72 to A$2.86.
The key scheme conditions are shareholder, FIRB and OIO approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low-risk.
The offer represents an all-time high, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for an 8 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/6.8%.


National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Scheme Vote on 15 April

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

Australia

Mirvac Group is an integrated, diversified Australian property group comprising an investment portfolio and a development business. The Company's investment portfolio, Mirvac Property Trust, invests in and manages office, retail and industrial assets and the development business has exposure to both residential and commercial projects.

Price Gauge
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Mirvac Group (MGR AU)

Australia a Risk Haven? Not Today, Mate

Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to...

Naomi Fink

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Scheme Vote on 15 April

The offer represents an all-time high, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for an 8 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/6.8%.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 22 changes across the ASX family in Dec. Plus passive buying in LNW due to a sole listing on the ASX. The adds have outperformed and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Australia a Risk Haven? Not Today, Mate

Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to...

Naomi Fink

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Scheme Vote on 15 April

The offer represents an all-time high, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for an 8 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/6.8%.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 22 changes across the ASX family in Dec. Plus passive buying in LNW due to a sole listing on the ASX. The adds have outperformed and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up