ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a> was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.

MAP Aktif Adiperkasa was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Parting Clouds Ahead

<ul>
<li>A recent meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.</li>
<li>MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif</a> and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. </li>
<li>Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>


A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.
MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under MAP Aktif and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. 
Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)Share price underperformance has priced in pessimistic growth expectation; Maintain Buy rating3Q24 performance was driven by Active in both margins and revenue, while Fashion and F&amp;B faced margin pressures.</li><li>We trimmed our FY24/ 25F net profit est. by 2.3%/5.8%, leading to FY25F EPS growth est of 16.8%, driven by Active and Fashion expansion.</li><li>We expect MAPI to sustain revenue and net profit growth and thus see 9.5% YTD share price correction to be unwarranted. Maintain Buy.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)Share price underperformance has priced in pessimistic growth expectation; Maintain Buy rating3Q24 performance was driven by Active in both margins and revenue, while Fashion and F&amp;B faced margin pressures.We trimmed our FY24/ 25F net profit est. by 2.3%/5.8%, leading to FY25F EPS growth est of 16.8%, driven by Active and Fashion expansion.We expect MAPI to sustain revenue and net profit growth and thus see 9.5% YTD share price correction to be unwarranted. Maintain Buy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mitra Adiperkasa - Share Price Underperformance Has Priced in Pessimistic Growth Expectation

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

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Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)