ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. </li>
<li>Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. 
Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. </li>
<li>The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. </li>
<li>MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. 
The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. 
MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Pushing Retail Boundaries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on MAPI with an unchanged TP of IDR2,300 (-0.5SD of its 4-normal years PE-target at 17.4x) as we maintain our FY23F earnings estimate of IDR2.2tn driven by 17.4% topline growth with +16.4% yoy opex growth.</li><li>We also assume a lower gross margin of 43.9% stemming from MAPI’s strategy to selectively adjust its selling prices to maintain sales volume.</li><li>MAPI remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We reiterate our BUY call on MAPI with an unchanged TP of IDR2,300 (-0.5SD of its 4-normal years PE-target at 17.4x) as we maintain our FY23F earnings estimate of IDR2.2tn driven by 17.4% topline growth with +16.4% yoy opex growth.We also assume a lower gross margin of 43.9% stemming from MAPI’s strategy to selectively adjust its selling prices to maintain sales volume.MAPI remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Looking Beyond the Archipelago

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week we look at the changing dynamics behind Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape as TikTok effectively moves into second place but the dynamics can change rapidly as it restructures Tokopedia. </li>
<li>We also look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast</a> as it delays its US factory launch until 2028 versus 2025 due to slower EV sales and we examine the Grab &amp; Trans-cab situation. </li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


This week we look at the changing dynamics behind Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape as TikTok effectively moves into second place but the dynamics can change rapidly as it restructures Tokopedia. 
We also look at Vinfast as it delays its US factory launch until 2028 versus 2025 due to slower EV sales and we examine the Grab &amp; Trans-cab situation. 
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Changing Dynamic in E-Commerce, Vinfast Holding Back, and Grab & Trans-Cab

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

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Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)