ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>The overall Indonesian market has traded sideways this year, rising by only +2.45% YTD, despite a strong economic recovery in 2Q2021. This is mainly due to the Emergency PPKM measures put in place as the COVID-19 cases spiked in June, with strict measures coming into effect on 3rd July</p>
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<p>In fact, new cases peaked out in Indonesia on 15th July and have been on a steep decline since herd immunity and increased vaccinations helped to calm the situation.</p>
<p>Recent conversations with retailers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> reveal a significantly improved picture in August.</p>
<div>One positive impact from last year's pandemic is that companies in a number of different sectors have adopted operational policies that allow them to operate more efficiently even in a lockdown situation.</div>
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<div>With the Indonesian market massively under-owned by foreign investors, we see this recent market correction as an opportunity.  Foreigner positioning is at the lowest level in a decade, which suggests potential inflows as recovery comes through.</div>
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<div>We recommend buying banks, autos, retailers, cement, digital economy proxies, telcos as data enablers, and property as a reflation trade. We remain positive on healthcare but see some pricing risk for testing services and declining COVID-19 related revenues. </div>
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The overall Indonesian market has traded sideways this year, rising by only +2.45% YTD, despite a strong economic recovery in 2Q2021. This is mainly due to the Emergency PPKM measures put in place as the COVID-19 cases spiked in June, with strict measures coming into effect on 3rd July

In fact, new cases peaked out in Indonesia on 15th July and have been on a steep decline since herd immunity and increased vaccinations helped to calm the situation.
Recent conversations with retailers such as Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), and Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reveal a significantly improved picture in August.
One positive impact from last year's pandemic is that companies in a number of different sectors have adopted operational policies that allow them to operate more efficiently even in a lockdown situation.


With the Indonesian market massively under-owned by foreign investors, we see this recent market correction as an opportunity.  Foreigner positioning is at the lowest level in a decade, which suggests potential inflows as recovery comes through.

We recommend buying banks, autos, retailers, cement, digital economy proxies, telcos as data enablers, and property as a reflation trade. We remain positive on healthcare but see some pricing risk for testing services and declining COVID-19 related revenues. 










CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - The Stars Are Aligned

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<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-malls-indonesia-retail-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10946:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust.</a>
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<li>There were also macro insights on Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, and the latest CrossASEAN Ground Zero insight on the digital economy and other ASEAN themes. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
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The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Singapore Airlines (SIA SP), and Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust.

There were also macro insights on Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, and the latest CrossASEAN Ground Zero insight on the digital economy and other ASEAN themes. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The CrossASEAN Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo Transformed, Sido Muncul, and Great Eastern

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<li>This week we look at the noise surrounding the entrance of new EV players to Indonesia and suggest that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> is well-positioned to face the renewed competition. </li>
<li>We also look at CVC's move on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals</a>, Kopi Kenangan's expansion plans, and Microsoft's commitment to invest US$1.7bn in the AI space in Indonesia. </li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
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This week we look at the noise surrounding the entrance of new EV players to Indonesia and suggest that Astra International is well-positioned to face the renewed competition. 
We also look at CVC's move on Siloam International Hospitals, Kopi Kenangan's expansion plans, and Microsoft's commitment to invest US$1.7bn in the AI space in Indonesia. 
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - EV Frenzy, Siloam Gets New Investors, Kopi Kenangan, and Microsoft's Pledge

Equity Bottom-Up

Siloam International Hospitals / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, with sustained QoQ improvements in revenues, EBITDA, and profits, stripping out a one-off write-down for hospitals under development. </li>
<li>The company also saw strong improvements in operational metrics including inpatient and outpatient days, with especially strong performance in March due to a dengue epidemic, which also diluted patient intensity. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals</a> saw continuing strength in more complex treatments, as it focused on raising clinical acuity in areas such as transplants and cardiology. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers.</li>
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Siloam International Hospitals booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, with sustained QoQ improvements in revenues, EBITDA, and profits, stripping out a one-off write-down for hospitals under development. 
The company also saw strong improvements in operational metrics including inpatient and outpatient days, with especially strong performance in March due to a dengue epidemic, which also diluted patient intensity. 

Siloam International Hospitals saw continuing strength in more complex treatments, as it focused on raising clinical acuity in areas such as transplants and cardiology. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers.


Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) - Raising Clinical Acuity

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medikaloka-hermina-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27000:1" rel="noopener">Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ)</a> booked a strong recovery in revenues and profits in FY2023 driven by rapidly rising inpatient and outpatient volume growth with JKN patient share rising. </li>
<li>The company also saw significant improvements in working capital in 2023 and will step up its capex and hospital expansion in FY2024E helping to drive growth. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medikaloka-hermina-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27000:1" rel="noopener">Medikaloka Hermina</a> is differentiated by its women &amp; children specialisation, higher JKN exposure, and its doctor partnership model. It trades at a discount to peers with higher growth expectations. </li>
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Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) booked a strong recovery in revenues and profits in FY2023 driven by rapidly rising inpatient and outpatient volume growth with JKN patient share rising. 
The company also saw significant improvements in working capital in 2023 and will step up its capex and hospital expansion in FY2024E helping to drive growth. 

Medikaloka Hermina is differentiated by its women &amp; children specialisation, higher JKN exposure, and its doctor partnership model. It trades at a discount to peers with higher growth expectations. 


Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Increasing Patient Velocity and Occupancy

Indonesia

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk PT engages in hospital management and business services. The Company operates hospitals located in the Greater Jakarta Area, Surabaya and Tegal.

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Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - The Stars Are Aligned

Indonesia has been through the worse in terms of the recent covid surge and is now on the cusp of a steep recovery at a time when foreign weighting...

Angus Mackintosh

The CrossASEAN Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo Transformed, Sido Muncul, and Great Eastern

The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Singapore Airlines (SIA SP),...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - EV Frenzy, Siloam Gets New Investors, Kopi Kenangan, and Microsoft's Pledge

This week we look at the noise surrounding the entrance of new EV players to Indonesia and suggest that Astra International is well-positioned to...

Angus Mackintosh

Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) - Raising Clinical Acuity

Siloam saw continuing strength in more complex treatments, as it focused on raising clinical acuity in areas such as transplants and cardiology....

Angus Mackintosh

Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Increasing Patient Velocity and Occupancy

HEAL is differentiated by its women & children specialisation, higher JKN exposure, and its doctor partnership model. It trades at a discount to...

Angus Mackintosh

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