'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/266/original/2020-04-24_08-07-36.png?1588109848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130266"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and Utilities (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2332:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Gas (9531 JP))</a>.  The Internet Content &amp; Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>) and Chemicals ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>) Sectors are the largest gainers.

Source • Japan Analytics29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while Shimano (7309 JP) withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Utilities (Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)).  The Internet Content &amp; Services (ZOZO (3092 JP)) and Chemicals ( Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)) Sectors are the largest gainers. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technlgy / Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technlgy (002709 CH)

<ul>
<li>Tinci is seeking an A+H listing. JPM, CITIC, and GF are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>We look at the company's two core segments: battery materials and daily and specialty chemicals.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Tinci is seeking an A+H listing. JPM, CITIC, and GF are the joint sponsors.
We look at the company's two core segments: battery materials and daily and specialty chemicals.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.


Tinci (天赐材料) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We looked at September to see which names pick up the most Analyst upgrades and which names had the most Analyst downgrades.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a> topped the list, both with 4 upgrades in September. Even with the 4 upgrades, Fast Retailing is still just barely above being considered "Hated by the Street".   <h2>Two or more Upgrades in September</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/034/855/original/1.png?1507069255" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="34855"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart UNY Holdings Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> has moved from no BUY recommendations just a short time…

We looked at September to see which names pick up the most Analyst upgrades and which names had the most Analyst downgrades.  Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983 JP) and Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) topped the list, both with 4 upgrades in September. Even with the 4 upgrades, Fast Retailing is still just barely above being considered "Hated by the Street".   Two or more Upgrades in SeptemberSource: Custom ProductsFamilyMart UNY Holdings Co Ltd (8028 JP) has moved from no BUY recommendations just a short time…

Popular and Unpopular Names in Japan in September....

Japan

Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsubishi Pharma.  The Company manages operation of its subsidiaries.

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Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements. The...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Tinci (天赐材料) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Shenzhen-listed Tinci is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Popular and Unpopular Names in Japan in September....

We looked at September to see which names pick up the most Analyst upgrades and which names had the most Analyst downgrades. Fast Retailing Co Ltd...

Custom Products Group

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