Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After initial good absolute and relative performance, the stock has corrected with the oil and gas complex</li>
<li>Q1 results show the company is exceeding its plan as higher prices impact the P&amp;L positively</li>
<li>The highest commodity weightings across the major trading houses mean this will be a winner as the next leg of the commodity bull market unfolds</li>
</ul>


After initial good absolute and relative performance, the stock has corrected with the oil and gas complex
Q1 results show the company is exceeding its plan as higher prices impact the P&amp;L positively
The highest commodity weightings across the major trading houses mean this will be a winner as the next leg of the commodity bull market unfolds


Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The oil shock is now morphing into a liquidity shock</li>
<li>Market action is starting to signal an upcoming US recession</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The oil shock is now morphing into a liquidity shock
Market action is starting to signal an upcoming US recession


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.</li>
<li>Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.</li>
<li>Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion</li>
</ul>


Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.
Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.
Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion


Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

<ul>
<li>Sojitz is Japan’s strategic gateway to a non‑Chinese rare earth supply</li>
<li>Earnings base continues to move away from the resources business and its inherent volatility</li>
<li>The company's discount to its larger peers will narrow as the market appreciates the changes</li>
</ul>


Sojitz is Japan’s strategic gateway to a non‑Chinese rare earth supply
Earnings base continues to move away from the resources business and its inherent volatility
The company's discount to its larger peers will narrow as the market appreciates the changes


Sojitz (2768.T) — Japan’s Rare Earth Play

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...

Rikki Malik

Overview #54 – The Spice Must Flow

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at opportunities to come as the sell-off continues

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

Sojitz (2768.T) — Japan’s Rare Earth Play

Lynas extended its agreement with Sojitz until 2038, agreeing to supply 75% of its heavy rare earths to Sojitz with a $110/kg NdPr price floor....

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

​Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...

Rikki Malik

Overview #54 – The Spice Must Flow

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at opportunities to come as the sell-off continues

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

Sojitz (2768.T) — Japan’s Rare Earth Play

Lynas extended its agreement with Sojitz until 2038, agreeing to supply 75% of its heavy rare earths to Sojitz with a $110/kg NdPr price floor....

Rikki Malik

Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...