Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As AI shifts from software hype to hardware reality, hyperscalers plan $650–750 billion in 2026 capex for infrastructure, boosting upstream hardware suppliers.</li>
<li>Japan's Nikkei has outperformed globally (+13% YTD vs. Nasdaq's decline), driven by strong gains in materials and semiconductor equipment firms tied to the AI supply chain.</li>
<li>Prime Minister Takaichi's landslide election victory fuels optimism for pro-growth policies; markets reacted positively with equity rallies, yen strength, and falling yields.</li>
</ul>


As AI shifts from software hype to hardware reality, hyperscalers plan $650–750 billion in 2026 capex for infrastructure, boosting upstream hardware suppliers.
Japan's Nikkei has outperformed globally (+13% YTD vs. Nasdaq's decline), driven by strong gains in materials and semiconductor equipment firms tied to the AI supply chain.
Prime Minister Takaichi's landslide election victory fuels optimism for pro-growth policies; markets reacted positively with equity rallies, yen strength, and falling yields.


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Global Hardware Store for the AI Era

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On May 1, the TSE designated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-water-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18073:1" rel="noopener">Air Water Inc (4088 JP)</a> a Security on Special Alert. This is a relatively new designation category with big impact. </li>
<li>This happens when the TSE deems the Company violated terms of the Code of Corporate Conduct. This was something of a known known. </li>
<li>This triggers index deletions in the very near-term. The stock reacted badly on Friday, but big picture the stock is cheap. </li>
</ul>


On May 1, the TSE designated Air Water Inc (4088 JP) a Security on Special Alert. This is a relatively new designation category with big impact. 
This happens when the TSE deems the Company violated terms of the Code of Corporate Conduct. This was something of a known known. 
This triggers index deletions in the very near-term. The stock reacted badly on Friday, but big picture the stock is cheap. 


[Quiddity Index] Air Water (4088) Accounting SNAFUs Mean Big Index Deletion Imminent

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report.

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report. 

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

Japan

MITSUBISHI GAS CHEMICAL COMPANY, INC. produces chemical products such as xylene and methanol.  The Company also manufactures engineering plastics and specialty chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Co (4182 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Global Hardware Store for the AI Era

Hyperscalers plan massive capex for AI infrastructure, boosting hardware suppliers; Nikkei outperforms on strong gains in AI supply chain, &...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] Air Water (4088) Accounting SNAFUs Mean Big Index Deletion Imminent

Air Water had a multi-year run where inappropriate accounting was implemented and seemingly approved. It's bad. Thankfully it's a small portion of...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Global Hardware Store for the AI Era

​Hyperscalers plan massive capex for AI infrastructure, boosting hardware suppliers; Nikkei outperforms on strong gains in AI supply chain, &...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] Air Water (4088) Accounting SNAFUs Mean Big Index Deletion Imminent

Air Water had a multi-year run where inappropriate accounting was implemented and seemingly approved. It's bad. Thankfully it's a small portion of...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Hyperscalers plan massive capex for AI infrastructure, boosting hardware suppliers; Nikkei outperforms on strong gains in AI supply chain, &...