Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The LDP secured a majority in Sunday's Lower House election despite losing seats while its partner New Komeito had small gains. There was some slight concern surrounding the solidity of the LDP's position so the market has reacted positively to the removal of uncertainty, rising over 2%. Current Secretary General Akira Amari lost his seat and although he is expected to remain in parliament through proportional representation votes, has announced his intention to resign creating a slight conundrum for Prime Minister Kishida.</p>

The LDP secured a majority in Sunday's Lower House election despite losing seats while its partner New Komeito had small gains. There was some slight concern surrounding the solidity of the LDP's position so the market has reacted positively to the removal of uncertainty, rising over 2%. Current Secretary General Akira Amari lost his seat and although he is expected to remain in parliament through proportional representation votes, has announced his intention to resign creating a slight conundrum for Prime Minister Kishida.

LDP Independent Majority Secured but Amari to Step Down?

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> cash flow remains highly constrained, failing to comfortably cover the group's legacy debt obligations. </li>
<li>The stock price dropped down to JPY 2,690 (July 14) and it is currently consolidating around JPY 2,725 as of mid-July 2026, breaking below its 200-day moving average.</li>
<li>The stock's <strong>sell-off appears tactically exhausted according to our model, a rebound rally from here could reach the 3000 price zone in 2-3 weeks.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) cash flow remains highly constrained, failing to comfortably cover the group's legacy debt obligations. 
The stock price dropped down to JPY 2,690 (July 14) and it is currently consolidating around JPY 2,725 as of mid-July 2026, breaking below its 200-day moving average.
The stock's sell-off appears tactically exhausted according to our model, a rebound rally from here could reach the 3000 price zone in 2-3 weeks.



Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KHI's new share and CB issues will fund production upgrades while strengthening the balance sheet. Potential dilution should be in the price.</li>
<li>The share price has been declining since March as overbought defense contractors were sold off. That is coming to an end. MHI has started to recover. </li>
<li>Collaboration with Airbus and Eurodrone is another reminder that Japan's defense build-up is not driven by the wars in Ukraine or the Persian Gulf. </li>
</ul>


KHI's new share and CB issues will fund production upgrades while strengthening the balance sheet. Potential dilution should be in the price.
The share price has been declining since March as overbought defense contractors were sold off. That is coming to an end. MHI has started to recover. 
Collaboration with Airbus and Eurodrone is another reminder that Japan's defense build-up is not driven by the wars in Ukraine or the Persian Gulf. 


KHI (7012 JP): Production Upgrades & Drone Deal with Airbus

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,748m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Kioxia, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Valor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,748m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Kioxia, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Valor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 10th): SoftBank, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Kioxia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> is down about 9% outright since a Reuters article mid-day 1 July suggested they'd be raising equity.  TOPIX is up tiny in the same period. </li>
<li>An equal-weighted basket of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> is up 2.25%. The KHI/Peers ratio had already come off recent highs too.</li>
<li>At a discount today's close, this looks like a good deal relative to peers, but it isn't a total no-brainer.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) is down about 9% outright since a Reuters article mid-day 1 July suggested they'd be raising equity.  TOPIX is up tiny in the same period. 
An equal-weighted basket of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) is up 2.25%. The KHI/Peers ratio had already come off recent highs too.
At a discount today's close, this looks like a good deal relative to peers, but it isn't a total no-brainer.


[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

LDP Independent Majority Secured but Amari to Step Down?

The LDP secured a majority in Sunday's Lower House election and the market has reacted positively to the removal of uncertainty, rising over 2% but...

Mio Kato

Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...

Nico Rosti

KHI (7012 JP): Production Upgrades & Drone Deal with Airbus

New shares and CBs to finance long-term growth with production upgrades and hydrogen energy. MOU with Airbus and Eurodrone adds to defense industry...

Scott Foster

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 10th): SoftBank, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Kioxia

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Fast Retailing (9983...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Kawasaki Heavy's ¥100bn offering should price today. It has fallen more than the dilution would suggest both outright and against peers and TOPIX....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LDP Independent Majority Secured but Amari to Step Down?

The LDP secured a majority in Sunday's Lower House election and the market has reacted positively to the removal of uncertainty, rising over 2% but...

Mio Kato

Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

​Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...

Nico Rosti

KHI (7012 JP): Production Upgrades & Drone Deal with Airbus

New shares and CBs to finance long-term growth with production upgrades and hydrogen energy. MOU with Airbus and Eurodrone adds to defense industry...

Scott Foster

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 10th): SoftBank, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Kioxia

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Fast Retailing (9983...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Kawasaki Heavy's ¥100bn offering should price today. It has fallen more than the dilution would suggest both outright and against peers and TOPIX....

Travis Lundy

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...