Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech and memory especially keep grinding higher with good showing from semi-cap.</li>
<li>Kioxia management expects to double memory output at several fabs over next 5-years.</li>
<li>MHI cutting their FY guidance as reality not quite meeting expectations...will the market care though?</li>
</ul>


Tech and memory especially keep grinding higher with good showing from semi-cap.
Kioxia management expects to double memory output at several fabs over next 5-years.
MHI cutting their FY guidance as reality not quite meeting expectations...will the market care though?


Japan Morning Connection: Shutdown Concerns Brushed Aside as Govt Set to Close This Morning

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD13,494m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Advantest, SoftBank, IHI, Kintetsu, Zensho, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Sanrio, Advantest, Softbank, Ihi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD13,494m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Advantest, SoftBank, IHI, Kintetsu, Zensho, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Sanrio, Advantest, Softbank, Ihi.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 26th): Sanrio, Advantest, SoftBank, IHI, Kintetsu, Zensho

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. 


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.</li>
<li>Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.</li>
<li>Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.</li>
</ul>


Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.
Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.
Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.


VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum

<ul>
<li>Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.</li>
<li>Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.</li>
<li>Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.</li>
</ul>


Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.
Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.
Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Shutdown Concerns Brushed Aside as Govt Set to Close This Morning

A move higher for pharma after Pfizer made a deal with Trump, expect squeezy moves for heavily shorted JP names. A positive for memory plays, with...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 26th): Sanrio, Advantest, SoftBank, IHI, Kintetsu, Zensho

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), IHI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation. However, the low required tendering...

Arun George

VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum

Shipowners are motivated to contract new VLCC tonnage due to aging fleet and low orderbook, but caution is advised as high TCEs may not last....

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Morning Connection: Shutdown Concerns Brushed Aside as Govt Set to Close This Morning

A move higher for pharma after Pfizer made a deal with Trump, expect squeezy moves for heavily shorted JP names. A positive for memory plays, with...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 26th): Sanrio, Advantest, SoftBank, IHI, Kintetsu, Zensho

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), IHI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation. However, the low required tendering...

Arun George

VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum

​Shipowners are motivated to contract new VLCC tonnage due to aging fleet and low orderbook, but caution is advised as high TCEs may not last....

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Shipowners are motivated to contract new VLCC tonnage due to aging fleet and low orderbook, but caution is advised as high TCEs may not last....