Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Meta taking a $3.5bn stake in Essilor Luxottica now gives them exposure to both Nikon and Paris Miki.</li>
<li>Further positive broker rhetoric for power-semis should continues to lift Rohm, while WOLF gains positive for Renesas.</li>
<li>Intel announcing plans to sell Mobileye stake may be seen as positive for foundry expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


Meta taking a $3.5bn stake in Essilor Luxottica now gives them exposure to both Nikon and Paris Miki.
Further positive broker rhetoric for power-semis should continues to lift Rohm, while WOLF gains positive for Renesas.
Intel announcing plans to sell Mobileye stake may be seen as positive for foundry expansion plans.


Japan Morning Connection: Pharma Set for Rough Start on Trump Threats

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

Japan

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

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Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JP)

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Pharma Set for Rough Start on Trump Threats

Meta announces stake in Essilor Luxottica, with aims for AI smart glasses. A good tone set for power semis, particularly Renesas. Pharma names...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Taiyo Yuden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Pharma Set for Rough Start on Trump Threats

​Meta announces stake in Essilor Luxottica, with aims for AI smart glasses. A good tone set for power semis, particularly Renesas. Pharma names...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Taiyo Yuden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Meta announces stake in Essilor Luxottica, with aims for AI smart glasses. A good tone set for power semis, particularly Renesas. Pharma names...