Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP)</a> and the department store <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/606/original/2020-09-30_06-18-07.png?1601414298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162606"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/607/original/2020-09-29_06-15-33.png?1601414581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162607"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.9 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 19%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.8 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We screened for names in Japan with a low PBR relative to its own history and also low relative to other names in the Sector. Large-cap names that made the list are  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267 JP)</a> with a 0.7x PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/961" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal Corp (5401 JP)</a> with a 0.6x PBR and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13613" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> with a 0.7x PBR.</p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Absolute PBR is less than 1.1x</li>
<li>Current PBR is currently 20% or more below the 5-year median PBR</li>
<li>Current PBR is 20% or more below the Sector Median</li>
</ol><h2>Screen</h2>…

We screened for names in Japan with a low PBR relative to its own history and also low relative to other names in the Sector. Large-cap names that made the list are  Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267 JP) with a 0.7x PBR, Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal Corp (5401 JP) with a 0.6x PBR and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) with a 0.7x PBR.Screen Criteria
Absolute PBR is less than 1.1x
Current PBR is currently 20% or more below the 5-year median PBR
Current PBR is 20% or more below the Sector Median
Screen…

Names with Low PBR Relative to History and Sector....

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics flash </strong>Tuesday 30 August 2016</p><p><strong>USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast</strong></p><div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Japan

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Taiyo Yuden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

Names with Low PBR Relative to History and Sector....

We screened for names in Japan with a low PBR relative to its own history and also low relative to other names in the Sector. Large-cap names that...

Custom Products Group

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Taiyo Yuden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

Names with Low PBR Relative to History and Sector....

We screened for names in Japan with a low PBR relative to its own history and also low relative to other names in the Sector. Large-cap names that...

Custom Products Group

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito