Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MMC results beat with revenue at ¥623bn (+4.2% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥31.4bn (+38.4% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>FY23 guidance was also above consensus with revenue of ¥2,290bn (+1.6% vs. consensus at +% YoY) and OP of ¥90bn (+4.7% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>We believe OP guidance is somewhat conservative as volume growth and a weak yen should more than offset raw material costs.</li>
</ul>


MMC results beat with revenue at ¥623bn (+4.2% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥31.4bn (+38.4% vs. consensus). 
FY23 guidance was also above consensus with revenue of ¥2,290bn (+1.6% vs. consensus at +% YoY) and OP of ¥90bn (+4.7% vs. consensus). 
We believe OP guidance is somewhat conservative as volume growth and a weak yen should more than offset raw material costs.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault SA (RNO FP)</a> is considering selling some of its 43% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> to help fund its efforts in EVs.</li>
<li>Sources were "people familiar with the matter." Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do "scoops" on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.</li>
<li>However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested Renault SA (RNO FP) is considering selling some of its 43% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to help fund its efforts in EVs.
Sources were "people familiar with the matter." Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do "scoops" on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.
However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. 


Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

Mitsubishi Motors – Could Get Squeezy

Mitsubishi Motors' results were bang in line with our previous estimates but noticeably above consensus while guidance was strong. Still not well...

Mio Kato

Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

On Friday, the French state announced an arrest warrant for Carlos Ghosn, and the Q1 call was full of vague talk of Alliance changes not yet...

Travis Lundy

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