Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans</li>
<li>ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%</li>
<li>Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization</li>
</ul>


The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization


Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.</li>
<li>Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.</li>
<li>Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.
Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.
Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.


SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-giken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40113:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Giken (6223 JP)</a> (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.</li>
<li>SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.
SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Seibu Giken IPO Trading - Still Not Particularly Enticing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a> is the 7-11 convenience store bank, which focuses on ATM fees more than loans, so its cash is JPY952bn vs loans JPY35bn at FY23.</li>
<li>Loan growth in 1Q24 is 7% YoY, one of strongest in Japan and it is accelerating in recent periods, alongside 8-9% growth in ATM transactions, retail accounts</li>
<li>Exceptionally strong ATM transactions abroad at 92.4m in 1Q24 vs 66.5m in 1Q23, including US, Indonesia and Philippines. </li>
</ul>



Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) is the 7-11 convenience store bank, which focuses on ATM fees more than loans, so its cash is JPY952bn vs loans JPY35bn at FY23.
Loan growth in 1Q24 is 7% YoY, one of strongest in Japan and it is accelerating in recent periods, alongside 8-9% growth in ATM transactions, retail accounts
Exceptionally strong ATM transactions abroad at 92.4m in 1Q24 vs 66.5m in 1Q23, including US, Indonesia and Philippines. 


Seven Bank - Assets 39x Loans | Strong 7% Loan Growth | ATM Transactions +8% | Retail Accounts +9%

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Earnings are very strong now, especially from mainstay securities business, but also from affilates. It is an interesting alternative financial...

Daniel Tabbush

Seibu Giken IPO Trading - Still Not Particularly Enticing

Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range. In this note we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Seven Bank - Assets 39x Loans | Strong 7% Loan Growth | ATM Transactions +8% | Retail Accounts +9%

Highly geared toward change in negative rates on BOJ deposits. Good growth in ATMs outstanding, ATM transactions (especially overseas), and in...

Daniel Tabbush

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