Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-chemicals-inc">Mitsui Chemicals</a> is strategically shifting its portfolio from cyclical basic chemicals to high-growth, high-margin specialty areas, including Mobility, Life &amp; Healthcare, and ICT Solutions, as part of its VISION 2030 plan.</li>
 <li>The company faces significant headwinds in its Basic &amp; Green Materials segment due to weak demand, geopolitical risks impacting raw material supply, and overcapacity from China, which has led to operating losses in this division.</li>
 <li>Despite near-term challenges in basic chemicals, the company maintains a commitment to shareholder returns through a stable dividend policy and share buybacks, supported by solid cash flow and profit growth in its specialty chemical domains.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Mitsui Chemicals is strategically shifting its portfolio from cyclical basic chemicals to high-growth, high-margin specialty areas, including Mobility, Life &amp; Healthcare, and ICT Solutions, as part of its VISION 2030 plan.
  The company faces significant headwinds in its Basic &amp; Green Materials segment due to weak demand, geopolitical risks impacting raw material supply, and overcapacity from China, which has led to operating losses in this division.
  Despite near-term challenges in basic chemicals, the company maintains a commitment to shareholder returns through a stable dividend policy and share buybacks, supported by solid cash flow and profit growth in its specialty chemical domains.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP) - May 2026

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE to soar from 5% to over 13%.</li>
<li>Restructuring is unlocking massive cost savings while driving growth from cutting-edge segments that are poised for double-digit growth and global dominance.</li>
<li>The stock trades at a deep discount, but could easily command a premium with solid execution, driving the share price to more than double or even treble within 3 years.</li>
</ul>


Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE to soar from 5% to over 13%.
Restructuring is unlocking massive cost savings while driving growth from cutting-edge segments that are poised for double-digit growth and global dominance.
The stock trades at a deep discount, but could easily command a premium with solid execution, driving the share price to more than double or even treble within 3 years.


Mitsui Chemical (4183): Releasing the Crackers!

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Japan

Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. manufactures and markets a variety of chemical products. The Company's products include ethylene, propylene and other petrochemicals, basic chemicals, synthetic resins, and fine chemicals.  The Company operates worldwide.

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Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP)

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Primer: Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP) - May 2026

Mitsui Chemicals is strategically shifting its portfolio from cyclical basic chemicals to high-growth, high-margin specialty areas, including...

αSK Primers

Mitsui Chemical (4183): Releasing the Crackers!

Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE...

Michael Allen

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Primer: Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP) - May 2026

Mitsui Chemicals is strategically shifting its portfolio from cyclical basic chemicals to high-growth, high-margin specialty areas, including...

αSK Primers

Mitsui Chemical (4183): Releasing the Crackers!

​ Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE...

Michael Allen

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE...