Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.</li>
<li>The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.</li>
<li>In February, the USTR announced "Proposed Actions" - fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.</li>
</ul>


The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.
The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.
In February, the USTR announced "Proposed Actions" - fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.


The USTR's New "Proposed Actions" For Section 301 Investigation on China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April</li>
<li>In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels</li>
<li>Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do <em>not</em> reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April
In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels
Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do not reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT


Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported this AM that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.</li>
<li>The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.</li>
<li>The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported this AM that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.
The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.
The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. 


KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,873m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, Nippon Steel, Nitori, Ai Robotics, Pan Pacific International, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Disco, Kintetsu, Yamada, Ihi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,873m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, Nippon Steel, Nitori, Ai Robotics, Pan Pacific International, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Disco, Kintetsu, Yamada, Ihi.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 3rd): IHI, Nippon Steel, Nitori, Ai Robotics

Japan

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)

The USTR's New "Proposed Actions" For Section 301 Investigation on China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors

The USTR recently announced a 301 investigative report on Chinese Shipping/Logistics/Shipbuilding and Proposed Actions. They will hurt US users who...

Travis Lundy

Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

April revenue figures from Evergreen and Yang Ming suggest a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, which has not been reflected in YTD or Y/Y share...

Tracking Traffic

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

K-Line's CEO in a Nikkei interview said they would expand their LNG carrier fleet by 60% from here to 2026. And they said they are considering...

Travis Lundy

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 3rd): IHI, Nippon Steel, Nitori, Ai Robotics

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted IHI (7013 JP), Nippon Steel (5401 JP), Nitori (9843 JP), Ai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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