Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here</li>
<li>As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains</li>
<li>We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector</li>
</ul>


We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here
As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains
We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector


Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.</li>
<li>The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.</li>
<li>On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.
The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.
On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.


Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-e-s-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2402:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui E&amp;S Holdings (7003 JP)</a>, is the seller.</li>
<li>MODEC's goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).</li>
</ul>



Modec Inc (6269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, Mitsui E&amp;S Holdings (7003 JP), is the seller.
MODEC's goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).


MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>In March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a> announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. </li>
<li>It <a href="https://www.modec.com/news/assets/pdf/20240315_ir_prime_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "Basic Plan" to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.</li>
<li>Mitsui E&amp;S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&amp;S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.</li>
</ul>


In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. 
It announced a "Basic Plan" to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
Mitsui E&amp;S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&amp;S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.


YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime - Effectively a Re-IPO

Japan

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)

Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

We believe container rates will continue to moderate in the near-term, and that in the absence of improving rates investors should look to reduce...

Tracking Traffic

Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Nippon Yusen today set H1 and FY guidance higher. Revenues, OP, RP, and NP all higher with the bulk of the improvement in containers, but the H1/H2...

Travis Lundy

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Along with its results announcement today, MS&AD announced that it will accelerate its cross-shareholding unwind and is targeting a sale of around...

Sumeet Singh

MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between...

Arun George

YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime - Effectively a Re-IPO

Modec raised capital last year, and tradable shares went below 35pct. That meant someone had to sell by end-2025. Mitsui E and S is selling most of...

Travis Lundy

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