Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !</li>
<li>NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q
JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !
NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff</li>
<li>Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE</li>
<li>We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 


Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.</li>
<li>JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky</li>
<li>NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.
JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky
NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.


Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. 
DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?


Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -1.2% ahead of Fed; Tech pulls back after torrid MTD; Eyes on Fed as Consensus converges on 25bp hike; More earnings ahead as FAANG(you get it) this week</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs  vs CASh -0.1%; USDJPY 130.44. ; Calls for more Activists?! Foreign Tourist Spend normalizes; KEPCO Nuclear plant powers down; Notable Earnings beats:  OLC, Omron; NEC; Misses: Canon </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Suzuki embraces carbon neutrality in a different form - yes a very different form...see below !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -1.2% ahead of Fed; Tech pulls back after torrid MTD; Eyes on Fed as Consensus converges on 25bp hike; More earnings ahead as FAANG(you get it) this week
JAPAN. NKY Futs  vs CASh -0.1%; USDJPY 130.44. ; Calls for more Activists?! Foreign Tourist Spend normalizes; KEPCO Nuclear plant powers down; Notable Earnings beats:  OLC, Omron; NEC; Misses: Canon 
DAILY NUGGETS. Suzuki embraces carbon neutrality in a different form - yes a very different form...see below !


Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP

Japan

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)

Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

US equities close out a solid quarter. For Japan, at the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs;...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

We think that the current share price level of Mitsui OSK is the “last hurrah” after the company goes ex-dividend on March 30 when the company pays...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

CS is no more as UBS steps in with a rescue. Japanese markets are expected to open strong today following the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse + global...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

JAPAN WRAP. NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11. Set for a decent day after the Beta-driven rally in the US. Still, it won't be all green on the...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP

JAPAN. NKY Futs vs CASh -0.1%; USDJPY 130.44. ; Calls for more Activists?! Foreign Tourist Spend normalizes; KEPCO Nuclear plant powers down;...

Mark Chadwick

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