HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a> nd <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.</li>
<li>In two years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> will turn even cheaper.</li>
</ul>


China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK) nd Mixue Group (2097 HK) are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.
In two years, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK), Chagee Holdings (CHA US), and Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) will turn even cheaper.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nanjing Leads Biolabs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Leads Biolabs raised HKD 1290m (USD 166m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, July 24th.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.</li>
</ul>


Leads Biolabs raised HKD 1290m (USD 166m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, July 24th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.


Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Trading Update

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management / Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management

<ul>
<li>Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.</li>
<li>If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company's future expansion plans and performance growth.</li>
<li>Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.</li>
</ul>


Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.
If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company's future expansion plans and performance growth.
Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

<ul>
<li>The policy turning point of high-value consumables/medical device industry is not far away. When a mature pricing mechanism is formed, it’s the time when industry expectations reverse and stabilize.</li>
<li>There’s rumor that AstraZeneca is in discussions for a US$15 billion partnership focused on ivonescimab. Although we understand that investors have been anticipating a big deal, we remain cautious.</li>
<li>After the outstanding IPO debut, IFBH’s share price continued to fall. The capital frenzy has led to the valuation to deviate seriously from the fundamentals. The outlook is not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


The policy turning point of high-value consumables/medical device industry is not far away. When a mature pricing mechanism is formed, it’s the time when industry expectations reverse and stabilize.
There’s rumor that AstraZeneca is in discussions for a US$15 billion partnership focused on ivonescimab. Although we understand that investors have been anticipating a big deal, we remain cautious.
After the outstanding IPO debut, IFBH’s share price continued to fall. The capital frenzy has led to the valuation to deviate seriously from the fundamentals. The outlook is not optimistic.


China Healthcare Weekly(Jul.13)- AstraZeneca-Summit $15bn Deal, IFBH Shares Decline Is Far from Over

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Anjoy Foods Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK)</a>, a quick-frozen food company in China,  raised around US$350m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost &amp; Sullivan report.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), a quick-frozen food company in China,  raised around US$350m in its H-share listing.
AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost &amp; Sullivan report.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading - Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand

China

MIXUE Group operates freshly-made drinks stores. The Company provides freshly-made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, and coffee. MIXUE Group conducts businesses across worldwide.

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Mixue Group (2097 HK)

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Trading Update

Leads Biolabs raises $166m in global offering, set to list on Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 26th with updated IPO details.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Jul.13)- AstraZeneca-Summit $15bn Deal, IFBH Shares Decline Is Far from Over

High-value medical device industry is on the brink of a policy turning point. There's many uncertainties about AstraZeneca-Summit $15bn deal. IFBH...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading - Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), a quick-frozen food company in China, raised around US$350m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

​China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Trading Update

​Leads Biolabs raises $166m in global offering, set to list on Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 26th with updated IPO details.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

​Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Jul.13)- AstraZeneca-Summit $15bn Deal, IFBH Shares Decline Is Far from Over

High-value medical device industry is on the brink of a policy turning point. There's many uncertainties about AstraZeneca-Summit $15bn deal. IFBH...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading - Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), a quick-frozen food company in China, raised around US$350m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Leads Biolabs raises $166m in global offering, set to list on Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 26th with updated IPO details.

Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....