Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX snapp rally;  Eearnings refocus as GS misses; Tech bid continues;  TELSA +7% as analysts see merits of price cuts; Japan's BOJ in focus. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. ANA and JAL recent annoucements highlight the commercial potential for the supply chain. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX snapp rally;  Eearnings refocus as GS misses; Tech bid continues;  TELSA +7% as analysts see merits of price cuts; Japan's BOJ in focus. 
JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters. 
DAILY NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. ANA and JAL recent annoucements highlight the commercial potential for the supply chain. 


Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.</li>
<li>The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?</li>
<li>If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.
The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?
If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.


Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.</li>
<li>The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.</li>
<li>The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.
The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.
The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Price Gauge
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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...

Mark Chadwick

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

The BOJ is set for a change in policy shortly. It could come before Kuroda-san leaves, or after, and we don't yet know whether Kishida-san will go...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Secured!

An article after the close suggests major banks are now agreed to supply JPY 1.2trln of loans, plus possibly 200bn of working capital commitment....

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. **BOJ Day -this is all that matters** Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...

Mark Chadwick

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

The BOJ is set for a change in policy shortly. It could come before Kuroda-san leaves, or after, and we don't yet know whether Kishida-san will go...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Secured!

An article after the close suggests major banks are now agreed to supply JPY 1.2trln of loans, plus possibly 200bn of working capital commitment....

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...