Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The buffet strategy has once again energized not only M but also its restaurant network.</li><li>We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (from Neutral) following an improved fundamental outlook.</li><li>Earnings are expected to grow at a 32% CAGR over the next two years, rising from Bt1.08bn this year to Bt1.42bn and Bt1.89bn in 2026–27E.</li></ul>

The buffet strategy has once again energized not only M but also its restaurant network.We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (from Neutral) following an improved fundamental outlook.Earnings are expected to grow at a 32% CAGR over the next two years, rising from Bt1.08bn this year to Bt1.42bn and Bt1.89bn in 2026–27E.

MK RESTAURANT GROUP Plc. (M): Back To Growth Mode...

<ul><li>We have revised up our earnings forecasts for 2025-27E to reflect stronger-than-expected 2Q25 results.</li><li>The 'MK Super Value Bt299' promotion has been extended through end-2025, with 10 additional menu items added, bringing the total to 29 all-you-can-order dishes.</li><li>SSSG in July was +4% (MKR +6%, Yayoi 0%, LCS –18%), driven by the MK suki buffet campaign that boosted customer traffic.</li></ul>

We have revised up our earnings forecasts for 2025-27E to reflect stronger-than-expected 2Q25 results.The 'MK Super Value Bt299' promotion has been extended through end-2025, with 10 additional menu items added, bringing the total to 29 all-you-can-order dishes.SSSG in July was +4% (MKR +6%, Yayoi 0%, LCS –18%), driven by the MK suki buffet campaign that boosted customer traffic.

MK RESTAURANT GROUP Plc. (M): Raised 2025-27E Earnings By An Average Of 27% P.a.

<ul><li>We have revised down our earnings forecasts to reflect weaker purchasing power and heightened competition in the restaurant business.</li><li>Core profit growth is now expected at a - 4% CAGR over the next three years.</li><li>However, the company still offers an estimated dividend yield of around 7-8% per year and maintains a strong financial position, with cash on hand of Bt8.2 per share as of 1Q25.</li></ul>

We have revised down our earnings forecasts to reflect weaker purchasing power and heightened competition in the restaurant business.Core profit growth is now expected at a - 4% CAGR over the next three years.However, the company still offers an estimated dividend yield of around 7-8% per year and maintains a strong financial position, with cash on hand of Bt8.2 per share as of 1Q25.

Mk Restaurant Group - Buffet Promotion Supporting Sales but Weighing on GPM

<ul><li>3Q24 profit declined YoY and QoQ due to a larger drop in sales compared to the increase in the gross margin, which pressured operating expenses to sales.</li><li>Reduced purchasing power and stiffer competition in the hotpot restaurant sector make the long-term growth outlook less attractive.</li><li>We expect 2-year profit growth at a CAGR of 5%.</li></ul>

3Q24 profit declined YoY and QoQ due to a larger drop in sales compared to the increase in the gross margin, which pressured operating expenses to sales.Reduced purchasing power and stiffer competition in the hotpot restaurant sector make the long-term growth outlook less attractive.We expect 2-year profit growth at a CAGR of 5%.

Mk Restaurant Group - 3Q24 Earnings Declined YoY and QoQ, Below Forecast by 6%

<ul><li>The current valuation has been revised to undervalued (from neutral previously), as the stock price decline has created upside of around 7.5%.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical view has been adjusted to neutral (from limited downside risk).</li><li>Long-term growth outlook: The view has been revised to slow (previously neutral) owing to an expected CAGR of just 3% over the next two years (2024-26E), which is below KTX’s growth benchmark of 5-10%.</li></ul>

The current valuation has been revised to undervalued (from neutral previously), as the stock price decline has created upside of around 7.5%.Meanwhile, the tactical view has been adjusted to neutral (from limited downside risk).Long-term growth outlook: The view has been revised to slow (previously neutral) owing to an expected CAGR of just 3% over the next two years (2024-26E), which is below KTX’s growth benchmark of 5-10%.

Mk Restaurant Group - Lower SSSG to Pressure 3Q24E Earnings

Thailand

MK Restaurant Group Public Company Limited engages in the sale of food and beverages through restaurants, primarily operating sukiyaki and Japanese restaurants under brands like MK, Yayoi, Miyazaki, and Hakata. The company also provides training services and manufactures and distributes food products. It was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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MK Restaurant Group (M TB)

MK RESTAURANT GROUP Plc. (M): Back To Growth Mode...

The buffet strategy has once again energized not only M but also its restaurant network. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (from Neutral)...

Krungthai XSpring

MK RESTAURANT GROUP Plc. (M): Raised 2025-27E Earnings By An Average Of 27% P.a.

The 'MK Super Value Bt299' promotion has been extended through end-2025, with 10 additional menu items added, bringing the total to 29 all-you-can...

Krungthai XSpring

Mk Restaurant Group - Buffet Promotion Supporting Sales but Weighing on GPM

We have revised down our earnings forecasts to reflect weaker purchasing power and heightened competition in the restaurant business.

Krungthai XSpring

Mk Restaurant Group - 3Q24 Earnings Declined YoY and QoQ, Below Forecast by 6%

3Q24 profit declined YoY and QoQ due to a larger drop in sales compared to the increase in the gross margin, which pressured operating expenses to...

Krungthai XSpring

Mk Restaurant Group - Lower SSSG to Pressure 3Q24E Earnings

The current valuation has been revised to undervalued (from neutral previously), as the stock price decline has created upside of around 7.5%.

Krungthai XSpring

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