Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.</li><li>I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chatgpt-o1-strawberry-and-memory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)</a></li><li>Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.</li></ul>

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>MKS Instruments demonstrated robust financial management and strategic positioning in its second-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024.</li><li>With a reported revenue of $887 million, the company performed at the high end of its guidance, supported by an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53—a figure that not only exceeded their projected high but also included the positive impact of reduced interest expenses from recent financial maneuvers.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

MKS Instruments demonstrated robust financial management and strategic positioning in its second-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024.With a reported revenue of $887 million, the company performed at the high end of its guidance, supported by an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53—a figure that not only exceeded their projected high but also included the positive impact of reduced interest expenses from recent financial maneuvers.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

MKS Instruments Inc: Initiation Of Coverage - Will The Expansion into Artificial Intelligence Server Market Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
</li>
<li>
TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
</li>
<li>
ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

</li>
</ul>



Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul><li>Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.</li><li>All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.</li><li>The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.</li></ul>

Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

United States

MKS Instruments, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies instruments and components used to control and analyze gases in semiconductor manufacturing and similar industrial manufacturing processes. The Company's products are used to manufacture flat panel displays, magnetic and optical storage devices and media, solar cells, fiber optic cables, and diamond thin films.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mks Instruments (MKSI US)

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

MKS Instruments Inc: Initiation Of Coverage - Will The Expansion into Artificial Intelligence Server Market Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

MKS Instruments demonstrated robust financial management and strategic positioning in its second-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024. With a...

Baptista Research

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)