Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.</li>
<li>China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.
</li>
</ul>


The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.
China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.</li>
<li>Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.</li>
<li>As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.
Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.
As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This insight recommends a basket of Asian-listed base metal producers.</li>
<li>Base metals, especially Copper, have a high probability of moving much higher as the AI race continues</li>
<li>We prefer to invest in the materials needed for the  building out of AI infrastructure  </li>
</ul>


This insight recommends a basket of Asian-listed base metal producers.
Base metals, especially Copper, have a high probability of moving much higher as the AI race continues
We prefer to invest in the materials needed for the  building out of AI infrastructure  


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices # 2

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire</li>
<li>China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire
China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year


Overview #44 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Australia

MMG is a mid-tier global resources company that explores, develops, and mines base metal deposits, including copper, zinc, gold, silver, lead, molybdenum, and cobalt. It operates projects across Australia, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, and was founded in June 2009.

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MMG (1208 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices # 2

Copper trading above $6/lb - a new ALL TIME HIGH. As we wrote here, $5 is the new floor. Spec positioning in futures close to levels signalling...

Rikki Malik

Overview #44 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Banks continue to aid the commodity trade while China takes aim...

Rikki Malik

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

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