Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The June 2025 index review results for F100 and F250 indices were announced yesterday after LSE market close.</li>
<li>There will be no changes for F100. There will be 4 ADDs and 4 DELs for F250.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/urban-logistics-reit-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35663:1" rel="noopener">Urban Logistics REIT (SHED LN)</a> is set to be deleted from the F250 index in June 2025 due to the completion of an M&amp;A event.</li>
</ul>


The June 2025 index review results for F100 and F250 indices were announced yesterday after LSE market close.
There will be no changes for F100. There will be 4 ADDs and 4 DELs for F250.
Separately, Urban Logistics REIT (SHED LN) is set to be deleted from the F250 index in June 2025 due to the completion of an M&amp;A event.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamma-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21942:1" rel="noopener">Gamma Communications (GAMA LN)</a> is the flagship addition forecast at the review at a market cap of ~$1.7bn following its listing transfer from AIM to Main Market on 2 May.</li>
<li>The ~$1.5bn tender offer of BBGI is expected to close prior to the review. Current F250 replacement candidates are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wickes-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41349:1" rel="noopener">Wickes Group (WIX LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pantheon-infrastructure-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35077:1" rel="noopener">Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT LN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobico-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22059:1" rel="noopener">Mobico Group (MCG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bellevue-healthcare-trust-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44348:1" rel="noopener">Bellevue Healthcare Trust (BBH LN)</a> are the main deletion candidates set to migrate from F250 to SmallCap.</li>
</ul>



Gamma Communications (GAMA LN) is the flagship addition forecast at the review at a market cap of ~$1.7bn following its listing transfer from AIM to Main Market on 2 May.
The ~$1.5bn tender offer of BBGI is expected to close prior to the review. Current F250 replacement candidates are Wickes Group (WIX LN) and Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT LN).

Mobico Group (MCG LN) and Bellevue Healthcare Trust (BBH LN) are the main deletion candidates set to migrate from F250 to SmallCap.


UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.</li>
<li>Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> secures support from 30.79% of the register.</li>
<li>We may be wrong on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.
Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) secures support from 30.79% of the register.
We may be wrong on Sanrio (8136 JP) by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

United Kingdom

Mobico Group PLC operates as a passenger transportation company. The Company offers shared mobility solutions to cities, businesses, education, healthcare, and customers. Mobico Group conducts its business worldwide.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mobico Group (MCG LN)

Monday Delight: 03/11/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you...

Contrarian Cashflows

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

All eight confirmed index changes have decent index flow impacts expected. Urban Logistics deletion could trigger one more addition to the F250...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monday Delight: 03/11/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you...

Contrarian Cashflows

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

All eight confirmed index changes have decent index flow impacts expected. Urban Logistics deletion could trigger one more addition to the F250...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles

GAMA to join F250 at the review following its listing transfer. WIX to join F250 before the review as a replacement to the BBGI tender offer. AEP...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett