Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pony-ai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44035:1" rel="noopener">Pony AI (PONY US)</a> raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its planned secondary listing in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Pony.Ai is HK$178.2 per share over the next 6-12 months, which represents 28% higher than the Hong Kong public offering price. </li>
<li>Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View of Pony.ai. Despite our Positive view, there have been increasing concerns about the overstretched valuations of major AI/tech related companies globally.</li>
</ul>


Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its planned secondary listing in Hong Kong. 
Our base case valuation of Pony.Ai is HK$178.2 per share over the next 6-12 months, which represents 28% higher than the Hong Kong public offering price. 
Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View of Pony.ai. Despite our Positive view, there have been increasing concerns about the overstretched valuations of major AI/tech related companies globally.


Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel’s Q3 results confirm discipline over drama, with stronger liquidity, narrowing foundry losses, and tangible proof that the “systems foundry” strategy is progressing on schedule.</li>
<li>$5.7 billion from the U.S. government, $2 billion from SoftBank, and divestments in Altera and Mobileye together fortified balance-sheet flexibility for the foundry ramp ahead. </li>
<li>Guidance underscores managed deceleration rather than weakness: Q4 margins to soften on Core Ultra 3 and Altera deconsolidation, even as execution tightens and demand continues to outpace supply into 2026. </li>
</ul>


Intel’s Q3 results confirm discipline over drama, with stronger liquidity, narrowing foundry losses, and tangible proof that the “systems foundry” strategy is progressing on schedule.
$5.7 billion from the U.S. government, $2 billion from SoftBank, and divestments in Altera and Mobileye together fortified balance-sheet flexibility for the foundry ramp ahead. 
Guidance underscores managed deceleration rather than weakness: Q4 margins to soften on Core Ultra 3 and Altera deconsolidation, even as execution tightens and demand continues to outpace supply into 2026. 


Intel’s Quarter That Finally Justified the Pain

Israel

Mobileye Global Inc. provides software and hardware technologies for automobiles. The Company specializes in development and deployment of driver assistance systems ("ADAS") and autonomous driving technologies and solutions. Mobileye Global serves customers worldwide.

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Mobileye Global (MBLY US)

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis

Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its...

Douglas Kim

Intel’s Quarter That Finally Justified the Pain

Intel's Q3 results show discipline with stronger liquidity and progress in the "systems foundry" strategy. Q4 guidance indicates managed...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis

Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its...

Douglas Kim

Intel’s Quarter That Finally Justified the Pain

​Intel's Q3 results show discipline with stronger liquidity and progress in the "systems foundry" strategy. Q4 guidance indicates managed...

Mint Finance

Intel's Q3 results show discipline with stronger liquidity and progress in the "systems foundry" strategy. Q4 guidance indicates managed...