Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With multiple mutations, Omicron may require modifications in the existing vaccines. With fast mover advantage and superior efficacy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> seems to be a clear winner of the situation.</li>
<li>Moderna’s current expectation to deliver 2–3 billion doses in 2022 is likely to be revised upwards with the fast spread of Omicron vaccine and full approval of booster doses.</li>
<li>Moderna shares have reasonable valuation compared to its peers. Higher visibility into 2022 and beyond will lead to re-rating opportunity.</li>
</ul>


With multiple mutations, Omicron may require modifications in the existing vaccines. With fast mover advantage and superior efficacy, Moderna Inc (MRNA US) seems to be a clear winner of the situation.
Moderna’s current expectation to deliver 2–3 billion doses in 2022 is likely to be revised upwards with the fast spread of Omicron vaccine and full approval of booster doses.
Moderna shares have reasonable valuation compared to its peers. Higher visibility into 2022 and beyond will lead to re-rating opportunity.


Moderna (MRNA US): To Cash in on Omicron Fear

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This is an updated insight of the original report called the <em>SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19</em> which I first published in April 2021.</li>
<li>Despite the 7.66 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines already administered, the number of COVID-19 cases today globally as compared to a year ago remain relatively similar. </li>
<li>The millions of people that leave their workplace because of the mandatory vaccination requirement could be another big wall of worry that "Mr. Market" will need to contend with.</li>
</ul>


This is an updated insight of the original report called the SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19 which I first published in April 2021.
Despite the 7.66 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines already administered, the number of COVID-19 cases today globally as compared to a year ago remain relatively similar. 
The millions of people that leave their workplace because of the mandatory vaccination requirement could be another big wall of worry that "Mr. Market" will need to contend with.


An Updated SPARS Pandemic Scenario Vs. COVID-19

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Clover Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33029:1" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197 HK)</a> is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. </p></div><div><p>Clover has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,837.2 million ($236 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. </p></div><div><p>Nine cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $138.5 million in the IPO (54.6% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Four out of the nine cornerstones are existing investors. They are Hillhouse, Orbimed, Temasek and Oceanpine Capital. The five cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are Rock Springs Capital, Athos Capital, Springhill Fund, Superstring Capital and Toroa.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ipo-needling" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59421" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling</a>, we stated that while there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. We concluded that Clover is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.  </p></div></div>

Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197 HK) is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. Clover has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,837.2 million ($236 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. Nine cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $138.5 million in the IPO (54.6% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Four out of the nine cornerstones are existing investors. They are Hillhouse, Orbimed, Temasek and Oceanpine Capital. The five cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are Rock Springs Capital, Athos Capital, Springhill Fund, Superstring Capital and Toroa.In Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling, we stated that while there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. We concluded that Clover is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.  

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33029:1" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals (CBL HK)</a> is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. </p><p>Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 million, according to press reports. Clover has a credible management team with a commendable track record in drug discovery and commercialization. Clover also has several blue-chip backers such as Hillhouse, Temasek, Lapam Capital, Delos Capital, Qianhai FoF, Oceanpine Capital, Betta Capital and OrbiMed. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>While there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. Overall, we believe that Clover is worth a closer look. </p></div>

Clover Biopharmaceuticals (CBL HK) is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 million, according to press reports. Clover has a credible management team with a commendable track record in drug discovery and commercialization. Clover also has several blue-chip backers such as Hillhouse, Temasek, Lapam Capital, Delos Capital, Qianhai FoF, Oceanpine Capital, Betta Capital and OrbiMed. While there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. Overall, we believe that Clover is worth a closer look. 

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Bangkok Expressway and Metro / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Low ridership and reopening have presented a dilemma to investors whether it is time to start building positions in the mass transport operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-expressway-and-metro-68c0c1b3-af0c-4380-a380-f3dc7ba5d5ac" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22849:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)</a> . On one hand, the low ridership presents room for improvement which means recovery of net income, therefore, a lower forward PE multiple. On the other hand, the reopening is yet to happen and how much is the increase in ridership is unclear. </p>
<p>With the reopening date is set, coming back to school, and the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector by having a grandiose New Year celebration with no less than sending an invite to the world-renown Andrea Bocelli to perform,  the mass transport ridership is set to increase from both the domestic reopening as well as from the increase in tourists arrival.</p>
<p>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> which trades at 8x book value, BEM (at 3.6x book value) does not look expensive.  BEM'share price is trailing behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22915:1" rel="noopener">Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)</a> in the recovery from COVID-19.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/285/original/image_21721413921634706788909.png?1634706789" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236285"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Reuters</p>
</div>

Low ridership and reopening have presented a dilemma to investors whether it is time to start building positions in the mass transport operator Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) . On one hand, the low ridership presents room for improvement which means recovery of net income, therefore, a lower forward PE multiple. On the other hand, the reopening is yet to happen and how much is the increase in ridership is unclear. 
With the reopening date is set, coming back to school, and the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector by having a grandiose New Year celebration with no less than sending an invite to the world-renown Andrea Bocelli to perform,  the mass transport ridership is set to increase from both the domestic reopening as well as from the increase in tourists arrival.
Compared to Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) which trades at 8x book value, BEM (at 3.6x book value) does not look expensive.  BEM'share price is trailing behind Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX) in the recovery from COVID-19.



source: Reuters


Bangkok Expressway (BEM): Ridership Increase

United States

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

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Moderna (MRNA US)

Moderna (MRNA US): To Cash in on Omicron Fear

Moderna is set to fly high on the continuous increasing demand for its Covid vaccine and rich pipeline beyond Covid. Emerging Omicron variant is...

Tina Banerjee

An Updated SPARS Pandemic Scenario Vs. COVID-19

This is an updated insight of the original report called the SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19 which I first published in April 2021.

Douglas Kim

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

Clover has launched an IPO to raise net proceeds of $236m at the mid-point of the price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. Our valuation analysis...

Arun George

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling

Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 m. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a COVID-19 vaccine candidate which was secured CEPI...

Arun George

Bangkok Expressway (BEM): Ridership Increase

the reopening date is set, and with the support from the Thai government to jump-start the tourism sector, the MRT ridership is set to increase....

Henry Soediarko

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