Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the December index review on 3 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.The review period for the rebalance ends on 19 November, so we are exactly two-thirds of the way through the review period.As of the close on 20 September, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> as a potential deletion.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a>, while potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kogan-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23575:1" rel="noopener">Kogan.com (KGN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redbubble-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24321:1" rel="noopener">Redbubble Ltd (RBL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omni-bridgeway-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8840:1" rel="noopener">Imf Bentham Ltd (OBL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spark-new-zealand-ltd-3dcc706a-f086-4dd4-882b-2a42a36ccf8d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26915:1" rel="noopener">Spark New Zealand (SPK AU)</a>.With multiple M&amp;A deal pending, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spark-infrastructure-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:595:1" rel="noopener">Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU)</a>, there could be more additions to the index if deals are completed or highly likely to be completed by end November.Short interest on most potential inclusions is quite low, while the short interest on many potential exclusions is quite high.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review on 3 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.The review period for the rebalance ends on 19 November, so we are exactly two-thirds of the way through the review period.As of the close on 20 September, we see Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX100 and Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) as a potential deletion.For the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), potential inclusions are Imugene Ltd (IMU AU), Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU) and Arena Reit (ARF AU), while potential deletions are Kogan.com (KGN AU), Redbubble Ltd (RBL AU), Monadelphous (MND AU), Imf Bentham Ltd (OBL AU) and Spark New Zealand (SPK AU).With multiple M&amp;A deal pending, including Afterpay Touch (APT AU), Sydney Airport (SYD AU), Ausnet Services (AST AU), Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) and Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU), there could be more additions to the index if deals are completed or highly likely to be completed by end November.Short interest on most potential inclusions is quite low, while the short interest on many potential exclusions is quite high.

ASX100/​200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

The Venerable David Webb just increased his position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/analogue-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28661:1" rel="noopener">Analogue Holdings Ltd (1977 HK)</a> as the company is transforming from a traditional E&amp;M player into a smart city and high tech building management company that has won a contract from the HK Housing Authority. <div class="content-highlight">The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers in various valuation multiples but with the amount of cash in the balance sheet, the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dividend yield that is quite enviable for a small-cap with a growth prospect. What not to like?</div>

The Venerable David Webb just increased his position in Analogue Holdings Ltd (1977 HK) as the company is transforming from a traditional E&amp;M player into a smart city and high tech building management company that has won a contract from the HK Housing Authority. The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers in various valuation multiples but with the amount of cash in the balance sheet, the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dividend yield that is quite enviable for a small-cap with a growth prospect. What not to like?

Analogue Holding (1977): From E&M to Smart City

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs. 

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Macro and Australian equity strategist, Macro Strategy Advisors

Shane Lee

Macro and Australian equity strategist

Macro Strategy Advisors

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Australia rallied strongly through a relatively solid reporting season, with the benchmark ASX 200 posting a strong 6% gain in the month. EPS was a little disappointing, given that only 50% of stocks that reported beat consensus estimates, with weaker-than-expected revenue the main culprit.  EPS growth for FY19 was downgraded by 1.1%pts to 3.5%, but analysts left EPS growth unchanged in 10 out of 19 industry sectors.  Materials, Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Services and Energy saw the largest downgrades relative to history after reporting half-year results.</li>
<li>
Government is having a Heavy Hand on Results. The Royal Commission in Financial Services is lifting compliance costs for the Banks, Wealth Managers and Mortgage Brokers.  Similarly, the Royal Commission into Aged Care is raising the same costs for stocks in this industry.  More stock-specific examples of Government intervention include AZJ, SKI, LYC and CAR (tighter credit supply from Banks).</li>
<li>
Cost pressures seem generally well-contained. US tariff-related cost pressures eased, but threats remain until a trade deal is negotiated with China.  Compliance costs are hitting Banks, Wealth Managers, Mortgage Brokers and Aged Care stocks.  However, the market seems to be more comfortable with the outlook. </li>
<li>
Growth Stocks Not Raising Guidance Were Hit. Growth names such as COH, CSL, TWC and TWE that delivered strong results without an upgrade to full-year earnings were dealt heavy blows.  However, stocks such as WEB, which revealed new growth opportunities were rewarded handsomely.</li>
<li>
Good Management of Consumer-facing Stock Saves the Day. Filling slowing demand with higher-margin product offering delivered for JBH and SUL, while good performance from offshore stores came to the rescue for HVN.  DHG saw weaker listings but fought this by selling higher margin products to agents.  However, some stocks struggled.  FBU, BLD, BAP ABC all succumbed to housing weakness.</li>
<li>
Grasping the Infrastructure Opportunity. CIM, MND and SVW all delivered on the back of the upswing in public and mining infrastructure spending.  In contrast, LLC’s struggling Engineering Division is a good example of how a poorly managed business misses out on opportunities when industry conditions are buoyant.</li>
<li>
Model Portfolio Implications. We will soon update our model portfolio, but reporting season showed there is probably more upside in Resources than we thought at the end of last year.  The worst seems to have passed for the Banks, but we struggle to see significant upside in earnings.  We will retain a defensive bias in the portfolio, but most likely reduce it somewhat.</li>
</ul>



Australia rallied strongly through a relatively solid reporting season, with the benchmark ASX 200 posting a strong 6% gain in the month. EPS was a little disappointing, given that only 50% of stocks that reported beat consensus estimates, with weaker-than-expected revenue the main culprit.  EPS growth for FY19 was downgraded by 1.1%pts to 3.5%, but analysts left EPS growth unchanged in 10 out of 19 industry sectors.  Materials, Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Services and Energy saw the largest downgrades relative to history after reporting half-year results.

Government is having a Heavy Hand on Results. The Royal Commission in Financial Services is lifting compliance costs for the Banks, Wealth Managers and Mortgage Brokers.  Similarly, the Royal Commission into Aged Care is raising the same costs for stocks in this industry.  More stock-specific examples of Government intervention include AZJ, SKI, LYC and CAR (tighter credit supply from Banks).

Cost pressures seem generally well-contained. US tariff-related cost pressures eased, but threats remain until a trade deal is negotiated with China.  Compliance costs are hitting Banks, Wealth Managers, Mortgage Brokers and Aged Care stocks.  However, the market seems to be more comfortable with the outlook. 

Growth Stocks Not Raising Guidance Were Hit. Growth names such as COH, CSL, TWC and TWE that delivered strong results without an upgrade to full-year earnings were dealt heavy blows.  However, stocks such as WEB, which revealed new growth opportunities were rewarded handsomely.

Good Management of Consumer-facing Stock Saves the Day. Filling slowing demand with higher-margin product offering delivered for JBH and SUL, while good performance from offshore stores came to the rescue for HVN.  DHG saw weaker listings but fought this by selling higher margin products to agents.  However, some stocks struggled.  FBU, BLD, BAP ABC all succumbed to housing weakness.

Grasping the Infrastructure Opportunity. CIM, MND and SVW all delivered on the back of the upswing in public and mining infrastructure spending.  In contrast, LLC’s struggling Engineering Division is a good example of how a poorly managed business misses out on opportunities when industry conditions are buoyant.

Model Portfolio Implications. We will soon update our model portfolio, but reporting season showed there is probably more upside in Resources than we thought at the end of last year.  The worst seems to have passed for the Banks, but we struggle to see significant upside in earnings.  We will retain a defensive bias in the portfolio, but most likely reduce it somewhat.


Aussie Equities Reporting Season Wrap: March 2019

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

Australia

Monadelphous Group Limited provides engineering and construction services to the resources and petrochemical industries. The Company provides mining and processing industry maintenance, mining equipment refurbishment, project management, construction, and airport ground handling services. Monadelphous Group serves customers in Australia.

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Monadelphous (MND AU)

ASX100/200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

There could be 1 change to the ASX100 and 5 changes to the ASX200 at the December rebalance. With a long M&A pipeline, there could be additional...

Brian Freitas

Analogue Holding (1977): From E&M to Smart City

The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers' multiples but the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dvd yield that is quite...

Henry Soediarko

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

Aussie Equities Reporting Season Wrap: March 2019

Australia rallied strongly through a relatively solid reporting season, with the benchmark ASX 200 posting a strong 6% gain in the month. EPS was...

Shane Lee

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX100/​200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

There could be 1 change to the ASX100 and 5 changes to the ASX200 at the December rebalance. With a long M&A pipeline, there could be additional...

Brian Freitas

Analogue Holding (1977): From E&M to Smart City

The company is trading at a deep discount to its peers' multiples but the ex-cash PER is even lower at 5.2x. It has a 5.5% dvd yield that is quite...

Henry Soediarko

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

Aussie Equities Reporting Season Wrap: March 2019

Australia rallied strongly through a relatively solid reporting season, with the benchmark ASX 200 posting a strong 6% gain in the month. EPS was...

Shane Lee

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead...

Vermilion Research

ASX100/200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact