Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, raised around US$1.1bn (including over-allocation) in its Philippines IPO. It will start trading tomorrow.</p></div><div><p>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-positives-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-negatives-high-debt-div-payments-floundering-ma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA</a> we spoke about the company background and its past performance.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-food-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-meat-alternative-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business</a> we compared the two business with their regional and global peers.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-not-cheap-but-sensible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible</a> we discussed our thoughts on valuation. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-ipo-might-not-be-a-high-flyer-but-worth-the-ride-quorn-tastes-good" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin IPO - Might Not Be a High Flyer but Worth the Ride, Quorn Tastes Good</a> we spoke about the deal pricing and dynamics.</li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll talk about trading updates.</p></div>

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, raised around US$1.1bn (including over-allocation) in its Philippines IPO. It will start trading tomorrow.We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, 

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share, and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA we spoke about the company background and its past performance.
In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business we compared the two business with their regional and global peers.
In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible we discussed our thoughts on valuation. 
In Monde Nissin IPO - Might Not Be a High Flyer but Worth the Ride, Quorn Tastes Good we spoke about the deal pricing and dynamics.
In this note, we’ll talk about trading updates.

Monde Nissin IPO Trading - Most Get off to a Slow Start, Peers Trading up Should Help

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>An analysis of past IPOs on the Philippines Stock Exchange shows that very few stocks have had strong openings offering over 50% upside on the first few trading days. However, IPOs in the Philippines have generally performed well after a relatively stable first two months.</p>
<p>Therefore, a strong opening for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a> shares on tomorrow’s PSE debut (1<sup>st</sup> July 2021) is not guaranteed, even though the offer has attracted significant interest from many long-only investors. Nevertheless, we think investors should not be disappointed, as Monde Nissin is likely to offer robust long-term returns.</p>

An analysis of past IPOs on the Philippines Stock Exchange shows that very few stocks have had strong openings offering over 50% upside on the first few trading days. However, IPOs in the Philippines have generally performed well after a relatively stable first two months.
Therefore, a strong opening for Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) shares on tomorrow’s PSE debut (1st July 2021) is not guaranteed, even though the offer has attracted significant interest from many long-only investors. Nevertheless, we think investors should not be disappointed, as Monde Nissin is likely to offer robust long-term returns.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a> is a leading food manufacturer in the Philippines with flagship brands such as <em>Lucky Me!</em> for instant noodles and <em>Quorn</em> for meat alternative products. Monde Nissin ranked first in retail sales value in the Philippines with its instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and yoghurt drinks in 2020, according to Nielsen.</p>
<p>Monde Nissin shares will begin trading on the PSE on 1 June and will be the largest listing on the PSE. The IPO received strong investor demand which included a high profile line-up of cornerstone investors. The cornerstone shares represent 67.1% of the offer shares. The eleven cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, Stichting Depositary APG Emerging Markets Equity Pool (Dutch pension funds), Avanda Investment Management, Capital Group, Eastspring Investments, FIL Investment, GIC, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>, M&amp;G Investment Management, NS Partners and RWC Asset Management.</p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-ipo-initiation-instant-karma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49745" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin IPO Initiation: Instant Karma</a>, we opined that Monde Nissin’s financial track record shows it has been able to combine modest top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that Monde Nissin’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51224" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is fair.</p></div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base-case DCF derived price target is PHP13.72 per share and our DCF sensitivity shows potential upside to the IPO price. Notably, our SoTP valuation of PHP15.90 is 13% above our previous SoTP valuation largely due to the significant re-rating of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beyond-meat-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28065:1" rel="noopener">Beyond Meat (BYND US)</a>. Since the announcement of the final IPO price on 5 May, Beyond Meat's shares have re-rated +22%.</p></div>
<p></p>
</div>


Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) is a leading food manufacturer in the Philippines with flagship brands such as Lucky Me! for instant noodles and Quorn for meat alternative products. Monde Nissin ranked first in retail sales value in the Philippines with its instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and yoghurt drinks in 2020, according to Nielsen.
Monde Nissin shares will begin trading on the PSE on 1 June and will be the largest listing on the PSE. The IPO received strong investor demand which included a high profile line-up of cornerstone investors. The cornerstone shares represent 67.1% of the offer shares. The eleven cornerstone investors are AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), Stichting Depositary APG Emerging Markets Equity Pool (Dutch pension funds), Avanda Investment Management, Capital Group, Eastspring Investments, FIL Investment, GIC, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US), M&amp;G Investment Management, NS Partners and RWC Asset Management.
In Monde Nissin IPO Initiation: Instant Karma, we opined that Monde Nissin’s financial track record shows it has been able to combine modest top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that Monde Nissin’s fundamentals are attractive. In Monde Nissin IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is fair.
Our base-case DCF derived price target is PHP13.72 per share and our DCF sensitivity shows potential upside to the IPO price. Notably, our SoTP valuation of PHP15.90 is 13% above our previous SoTP valuation largely due to the significant re-rating of Beyond Meat (BYND US). Since the announcement of the final IPO price on 5 May, Beyond Meat's shares have re-rated +22%.



ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> just released a strong set of 1Q2021 results, with revenue growth of +31.7% and pre-tax profit growth of +121.1%. The exchange saw its net income rise by +199% YoY and EPS by +195% YoY. The better numbers were driven by higher market volumes and particularly from retail investors and a pick-up in IPO activity and placements.</p>
<p>We expect continued momentum behind volumes driven by retail together with more IPO activity in 2Q2021, with the completion of the US$1bn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a> IPO to come together with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26988:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM)</a>, National Grid Corporation (NCGP), and REITs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/megaworld-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8746:1" rel="noopener">Megaworld Corp (MEG PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8831:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Land Co (RLC PM),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vista-land-lifescapes-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18262:1" rel="noopener">Vista Land &amp; Lifescapes (VLL PM)</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> is trading at a discount to regional exchanges on 18.6x FY21E PER, which trades on an average forward PER of 27.7x. There are also a number of potential catalysts ahead, the most obvious being higher volumes, driven by increasing retail participation plus significantly higher profile IPOs in FY2021. </p>
</section>



The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) just released a strong set of 1Q2021 results, with revenue growth of +31.7% and pre-tax profit growth of +121.1%. The exchange saw its net income rise by +199% YoY and EPS by +195% YoY. The better numbers were driven by higher market volumes and particularly from retail investors and a pick-up in IPO activity and placements.
We expect continued momentum behind volumes driven by retail together with more IPO activity in 2Q2021, with the completion of the US$1bn Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) IPO to come together with Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM), National Grid Corporation (NCGP), and REITs from Megaworld Corp (MEG PM), Robinsons Land Co (RLC PM), and Vista Land &amp; Lifescapes (VLL PM). 
Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) is trading at a discount to regional exchanges on 18.6x FY21E PER, which trades on an average forward PER of 27.7x. There are also a number of potential catalysts ahead, the most obvious being higher volumes, driven by increasing retail participation plus significantly higher profile IPOs in FY2021. 


Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Solid Foundations for Future Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a>, the market leader in instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and drinking yogurt in the Philippines, has seen its US$1.0bn IPO get considerable traction among global long-only funds.</li>
<li>The subscription period for the IPO ends today (25<sup>th</sup> May 2021) and the offer (excluding cornerstone investors) was oversubscribed by around 5.4x as of 23<sup>rd</sup> May 2021, according to UBS, a joint lead bookrunner for the deal. The shares will start trading on 1<sup>st</sup> June 2021.</li>
<li>Subscriptions for the domestic retail portion of the IPO, which is about US$102.1m, could be weak considering that around 60% of the IPOs on the Philippines Stock Exchange were smaller than Monde Nissin’s domestic retail allotment.</li>
<li>Downside risks are limited as a lot of long-only investors seem to think that Monde Nissin is priced less than its intrinsic value at the IPO price.</li>
<li>We don’t think that Monde Nissin may pop like a similar IPO in Hong Kong or the US but it may be a good thing as shares might continue to attract long-only investors and remain less volatile following the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM), the market leader in instant noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce and drinking yogurt in the Philippines, has seen its US$1.0bn IPO get considerable traction among global long-only funds.
The subscription period for the IPO ends today (25th May 2021) and the offer (excluding cornerstone investors) was oversubscribed by around 5.4x as of 23rd May 2021, according to UBS, a joint lead bookrunner for the deal. The shares will start trading on 1st June 2021.
Subscriptions for the domestic retail portion of the IPO, which is about US$102.1m, could be weak considering that around 60% of the IPOs on the Philippines Stock Exchange were smaller than Monde Nissin’s domestic retail allotment.
Downside risks are limited as a lot of long-only investors seem to think that Monde Nissin is priced less than its intrinsic value at the IPO price.
We don’t think that Monde Nissin may pop like a similar IPO in Hong Kong or the US but it may be a good thing as shares might continue to attract long-only investors and remain less volatile following the IPO.


Monde Nissin Is Attracting a Lot of Long Only Funds

Philippines

Monde Nissin is a Philippine multinational food and beverage company that manufactures and distributes a wide array of products, including instant noodles, biscuits, baked goods, culinary aids, and alternative meat products. Its portfolio includes popular brands such as Lucky Me!, SkyFlakes, and Quorn. The company is headquartered in Santa Rosa, Laguna, Philippines, and was founded in 1979.

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Monde Nissin (MONDE PM)

Monde Nissin IPO Trading - Most Get off to a Slow Start, Peers Trading up Should Help

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, raised around US$1.1bn in its Philippines IPO. It will start trading tomorrow.

Sumeet Singh

Monde Nissin IPO: First Day Trading

A strong opening for Monde Nissin tomorrow is not guaranteed, as has not been the case for most IPOs in the Philippines. If Monde Nissin manages to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Monde Nissin IPO: Trading Debut

Monde Nissin shares will begin trading on the PSE on 1 June. Our SoTP valuation of PHP15.90 is 13% higher than our previous valuation due to Beyond...

Arun George

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Solid Foundations for Future Growth

The Philippine Stock Exchange released a strong set of results for 1Q2021 but we see more to come with higher volumes and more IPO activity...

Angus Mackintosh

Monde Nissin Is Attracting a Lot of Long Only Funds

We believe most retail investors who want a piece of the company would get what they want. Therefore, Monde Nissin might not pop on debut like a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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