Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack from hard discounters and online competition.</li><li class="p1">The prolonged period of slow economic growth has conditioned consumers to be more price sensitive, and the emergence of the e-commerce channel is rapidly changing consumers' shopping behaviours.</li><li class="p2">In our opinion, the strongest antidote to these pressures is a strong brand.</li><li class="p2">In this report, we quantify the power of each company's brand by its ability to take pricing, using a number of metrics, and conclude that while brand strength varies widely across the consumer packaged goods space, beverages and tobacco generally enjoy stronger positions.</li><li class="p2">We also dive deep into cost advantages and show that while some of the large diversified CPG firms may generate economies of scope, economies of scale are more prevalent in industries with a homogeneous manufacturing process.</li></ul>Lead Analysts: Adam Fleck, CFA; Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM; R.J. Hottovy, CFA; Erin Lash, CFA; Ken Perkins, CFAFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack from hard discounters and online competition.The prolonged period of slow economic growth has conditioned consumers to be more price sensitive, and the emergence of the e-commerce channel is rapidly changing consumers' shopping behaviours.In our opinion, the strongest antidote to these pressures is a strong brand.In this report, we quantify the power of each company's brand by its ability to take pricing, using a number of metrics, and conclude that while brand strength varies widely across the consumer packaged goods space, beverages and tobacco generally enjoy stronger positions.We also dive deep into cost advantages and show that while some of the large diversified CPG firms may generate economies of scope, economies of scale are more prevalent in industries with a homogeneous manufacturing process.Lead Analysts: Adam Fleck, CFA; Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM; R.J. Hottovy, CFA; Erin Lash, CFA; Ken Perkins, CFAFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Morningstar Consumer Observer: Shopping for the CPG Brands Best Positioned for a New Era in Commerce

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mondelez International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mondelez International's latest financial results present a mixed picture with both strengths and challenges for potential investors to consider.</li><li>During the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved promising outcomes overall, but encountered significant regional disparities.</li><li>On the positive side, Mondelez reported strong global balance, driven by impressive performance outside North America.</li></ul>

Mondelez International's latest financial results present a mixed picture with both strengths and challenges for potential investors to consider.During the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved promising outcomes overall, but encountered significant regional disparities.On the positive side, Mondelez reported strong global balance, driven by impressive performance outside North America.

Mondelez International: Emerging Market Contributions As A Critical Growth Engine!

<ul><li>Mondelez International reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, showing solid results amidst challenging external conditions.</li><li>The company's revenue grew by 3.1%, driven primarily by robust pricing execution in its chocolate business due to unprecedented cocoa input costs.</li><li>However, volume/mix decreased by 3.5% as elasticity pressures continued.</li></ul>

Mondelez International reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, showing solid results amidst challenging external conditions.The company's revenue grew by 3.1%, driven primarily by robust pricing execution in its chocolate business due to unprecedented cocoa input costs.However, volume/mix decreased by 3.5% as elasticity pressures continued.

Mondelez International’s Smart Pricing Play Is Beating Cocoa Inflation—Here’s How!

United States

Mondelez International Inc. is a food and beverage company.  The Company manufactures and markets packaged food products, including snacks, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various packaged grocery products.  Mondelez International sells its products throughout the world.

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Mondelez International (MDLZ US)

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate...

John-Paul Smith

Morningstar Consumer Observer: Shopping for the CPG Brands Best Positioned for a New Era in Commerce

Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack...

Morningstar, Inc.

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Mondelez International: Emerging Market Contributions As A Critical Growth Engine!

Mondelez International's latest financial results present a mixed picture with both strengths and challenges for potential investors to...

Baptista Research

Mondelez International’s Smart Pricing Play Is Beating Cocoa Inflation—Here’s How!

Mondelez International reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, showing solid results amidst challenging external conditions. The company's...

Baptista Research

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