Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer comparison of the four companies under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer comparison of the four companies under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2020 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Asia Fixed Income Analyst

Derek Silva

Mongolian Mining (bond ticker: MONMIN) is a name that has historically been better known among the distressed experts in Asia High Yield. It was trying to get back into the ranks of fundamentally sound issuers after a debt restructuring in 2016 and the launch of a new bond in April 2019. The new bond spent much of 2019 trading in the 90s and then Covid-19 pushed it much lower. While it has rebounded somewhat with the rest of the market, the bond is still at a cash price below 80 and an attractive yield of ~18%.  Now there might be a catalyst for the Mongolian Mining bond again. The latest figures from China indicate that imports of coking coal from Mongolia have gotten a strong boost in September and likely into October, as imports from Australia plummeted in September and are reportedly being stopped in October due to political pressure.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/849/original/Screenshot%202020-10-27%20at%2017.27.01.png?1603794440" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167849"></figure></section>The cash price of ~77.8 and yield of ~18% for the Mongolian Mining 2024 bond might look interesting here for investors who are willing to take on the risk. It must be said that the bond won’t, and shouldn’t, get back to par (100) any time soon. The company has a checkered past, it is small and one-dimensional, and it had a poor H1 result.But, in the near-term, there should be some upside potential in the bond if the company can take advantage of the China-Australia friction and the good demand from the Chinese steel sector. Already the company’s Q3 coal sales volume indicate this might be the case, as it has shown a nice rebound.

Mongolian Mining (bond ticker: MONMIN) is a name that has historically been better known among the distressed experts in Asia High Yield. It was trying to get back into the ranks of fundamentally sound issuers after a debt restructuring in 2016 and the launch of a new bond in April 2019. The new bond spent much of 2019 trading in the 90s and then Covid-19 pushed it much lower. While it has rebounded somewhat with the rest of the market, the bond is still at a cash price below 80 and an attractive yield of ~18%.  Now there might be a catalyst for the Mongolian Mining bond again. The latest figures from China indicate that imports of coking coal from Mongolia have gotten a strong boost in September and likely into October, as imports from Australia plummeted in September and are reportedly being stopped in October due to political pressure.The cash price of ~77.8 and yield of ~18% for the Mongolian Mining 2024 bond might look interesting here for investors who are willing to take on the risk. It must be said that the bond won’t, and shouldn’t, get back to par (100) any time soon. The company has a checkered past, it is small and one-dimensional, and it had a poor H1 result.But, in the near-term, there should be some upside potential in the bond if the company can take advantage of the China-Australia friction and the good demand from the Chinese steel sector. Already the company’s Q3 coal sales volume indicate this might be the case, as it has shown a nice rebound.

Will Australia's Pain Be Mongolian Mining's Gain?

Mongolia

Mongolian Mining Corporation is a high-quality coking coal producer and exporter, operating two open-pit coking coal mines, Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran, in the Umnugobi aimag of Mongolia. The company's operations encompass the mining, processing, transportation, and sale of various coal products, primarily washed hard-coking coal. It is headquartered in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and was incorporated in 2010.

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Mongolian Mining (975 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Will Australia's Pain Be Mongolian Mining's Gain?

It's never been the golden boy of Asia High Yield, but Mongolian Mining (and its cheap bond) could benefit from Australia's trade troubles with...

Derek Silva

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