Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.</li>
<li>Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.</li>
<li>As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. </li>
</ul>


Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 


Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> reported its <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0117/2025011700604.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">production update</a>, which is in line with our estimates for 7.9 million tons of washed coal sold for FY24. </li>
<li>The company commenced <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0116/2025011600922.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buybacks</a>, purchasing 0.26% of its outstanding shares at 6.65 HKD/share. We believe the company will also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-mining-corp-975-hk-play-on-coking-coal-price-with-growth-optionality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announce a dividend</a> in its upcoming results. </li>
<li>After the massive correction in share price owing to a weaker coking coal price, the stock trades at 4.2x PE, 1.9x EV-EBITDA, and a 7-10% dividend yield (30-50% payout ratio). </li>
</ul>



Mongolian Mining (975 HK) reported its production update, which is in line with our estimates for 7.9 million tons of washed coal sold for FY24. 
The company commenced buybacks, purchasing 0.26% of its outstanding shares at 6.65 HKD/share. We believe the company will also announce a dividend in its upcoming results. 
After the massive correction in share price owing to a weaker coking coal price, the stock trades at 4.2x PE, 1.9x EV-EBITDA, and a 7-10% dividend yield (30-50% payout ratio). 


Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Q4 2024 Operational Updates and Commencement of Buybacks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. </li>
<li>The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. </li>
<li>Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. </li>
</ul>



Mongolian Mining (975 HK) released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. 
The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. 
Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. 


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

<ul>
<li>In a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1002/2024100202284.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing released last evening</a> after the market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> announced it had redeemed the entire outstanding principal amount of the perpetual securities and their distribution.</li>
<li>The announcement is significant as it prepares the company to distribute dividends for FY24 in the March results. </li>
<li>The stock trades at 5.2x FY24 PE and 2.5x EV-EBITDA, and we expect the company to have massive net cash by the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In a filing released last evening after the market, Mongolian Mining (975 HK) announced it had redeemed the entire outstanding principal amount of the perpetual securities and their distribution.
The announcement is significant as it prepares the company to distribute dividends for FY24 in the March results. 
The stock trades at 5.2x FY24 PE and 2.5x EV-EBITDA, and we expect the company to have massive net cash by the end of the year.


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Redemption of Perpetual Securities Complete, Dividend Catalyst In-Play

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Mongolia

Mongolian Mining Corporation is a high-quality coking coal producer and exporter, operating two open-pit coking coal mines, Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran, in the Umnugobi aimag of Mongolia. The company's operations encompass the mining, processing, transportation, and sale of various coal products, primarily washed hard-coking coal. It is headquartered in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and was incorporated in 2010.

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Mongolian Mining (975 HK)

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

Read this insight to understand the implications of Mongolia's mining sector developments, including government actions on the Tavan Tolgoi coal...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Q4 2024 Operational Updates and Commencement of Buybacks

We provide an operational update for Mongolia Mining's (975 HK) Q4 2024. Trading at 4.2x FY24e PE and 1.9x EV-EBITDA, we expect the stock to...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

We provide an update on Mongolia Mining Corp 975 HK Q3 2024 operations. Trading at 5.6x FY24 PE with a high probability of paying dividends in FY25...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Redemption of Perpetual Securities Complete, Dividend Catalyst In-Play

We discuss a significant catalyst for Mongolia Mining 975 HK: the company redeemed its perpetual security, paving the way for future dividend...

Sameer Taneja

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

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