Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-ceo-chairman-entice-gs-to-sponsor-an-mbo-for-recently-lackluster-raksul-4384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:214151" rel="noopener">[Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)</a> I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." </li>
<li>Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.</li>
<li>That's about 14% of the register who is apparently <em>explicitly</em> unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.</li>
</ul>


In [Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384) I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." 
Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.
That's about 14% of the register who is apparently explicitly unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.


[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>MY.Alpha <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XI18.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-01-29T07%3A43%3A42Z&amp;se=2031-01-29T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=kPsjKq9fK8jE14Jf9h8xjamls%2B24%2FOOVcFr9lijd1ig%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.06% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>. The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.</li>
<li>The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.</li>
<li>The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. </li>
</ul>


MY.Alpha reported a 5.06% ownership ratio in Raksul Inc (4384 JP). The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.
The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.
The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. </li>
<li>They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.</li>
<li>The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.</li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. 
They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.
The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.


[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) has recommended a Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.
While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. 


Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JINGDONG Industrials / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> raised around US$383m, after pricing in its Hong Kong IPO at the mid-point.</li>
<li>JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrials (7618 HK) raised around US$383m, after pricing in its Hong Kong IPO at the mid-point.
JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


JD Industrials IPO Trading - Decent Pricing but Weakish Demand

Japan

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

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MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

JD Industrials IPO Trading - Decent Pricing but Weakish Demand

JD Industrials (7618 HK) raised around US$383m, after pricing in its Hong Kong IPO at the mid-point. Demand overall was weakish.

Sumeet Singh

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[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

Since I last wrote, the stock is up a bit but there is no news. UBS AG has increased its stake. Matsumoto-san has filed another amendment to...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

JD Industrials IPO Trading - Decent Pricing but Weakish Demand

JD Industrials (7618 HK) raised around US$383m, after pricing in its Hong Kong IPO at the mid-point. Demand overall was weakish.

Sumeet Singh