Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro


Declining Business Short Candidates: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Nat'l Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro

<ul>
<li>This presentation runs through six current short ideas presented on a Smartkarma webinar on 22nd December.</li>
<li>These are:  Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and Renewable Fuels (REGI).</li>
<li>The presentation also summarizes Two Rivers' short idea generation process.</li>
</ul>


This presentation runs through six current short ideas presented on a Smartkarma webinar on 22nd December.
These are:  Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and Renewable Fuels (REGI).
The presentation also summarizes Two Rivers' short idea generation process.


President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

<p>COVID may have impacted the tire replacement cycle for longer than expected.  Additionally, after reopening, more people may work from home more frequently than before COVID, potentially putting a cap on a miles driven rebound.  Furthermore, Monro's geographic footprint exposes them to some negative migration trends occurring in parts of the US.  Finally, estimates and valuations leave room for operational disappointment and multiple contraction. </p>

COVID may have impacted the tire replacement cycle for longer than expected.  Additionally, after reopening, more people may work from home more frequently than before COVID, potentially putting a cap on a miles driven rebound.  Furthermore, Monro's geographic footprint exposes them to some negative migration trends occurring in parts of the US.  Finally, estimates and valuations leave room for operational disappointment and multiple contraction. 

Monro Inc(MNRO): Potential Permanent Pressure on Miles Driven and Migration Headwinds May Hurt MNRO

United States

Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. operates a chain of Company owned stores in the Northeast US providing automotive undercar repair and tire services in the Eastern region of the US. The Company's stores provide a broad range of services  for brake systems, mufflers and exhaust, tires, steering, drive train,  suspension, wheel alignment, routine maintenance and state inspections.

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Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO US)

Declining Business Short Candidates: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Nat'l Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro

Declining business shorts earn profits by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Review of Current Short Ideas

Current short ideas presented here: Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Monro Inc(MNRO): Potential Permanent Pressure on Miles Driven and Migration Headwinds May Hurt MNRO

An auto service and tire retailer facing mile driven headwinds due to work from home trends and net migration out of their Northeast stores.

Robert C Prather Jr

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