Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

Professional Special Situation Investor, TripleS Special Situation Investing

Triple S Special Situations Investing

Professional Special Situation Investor

TripleS Special Situation Investing

Professional Special Situation Investor with over 20 years of experience.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I’m back from vacation after navigating some bears* Here’s an update of some things I’m researching at the moment.</li><li>This smorgasbord is not intended as personal advice. You’re responsible for position sizing, strikes, and so on.</li><li>YMMV and do your own DD.</li></ul>

I’m back from vacation after navigating some bears* Here’s an update of some things I’m researching at the moment.This smorgasbord is not intended as personal advice. You’re responsible for position sizing, strikes, and so on.YMMV and do your own DD.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

<p>The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.</p>

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

United States

Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. operates a chain of Company owned stores in the Northeast US providing automotive undercar repair and tire services in the Eastern region of the US. The Company's stores provide a broad range of services  for brake systems, mufflers and exhaust, tires, steering, drive train,  suspension, wheel alignment, routine maintenance and state inspections.

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Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO US)

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

We expect IBKR and possibly APP to join the S&P500 in September. We expect two deletes. MSTR has moved to second place BUT it has issues which...

Travis Lundy

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

I’m back from vacation after navigating some bears* Here’s an update of some things I’m researching at the moment. This smorgasbord is not intended...

Triple S Special Situations Investing

Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Upgrading Discretionary $XLY to Overweight, Downgrading Energy $XLE & Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; Many indexes with major bullish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

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