Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> constituents from 30 to 50.</li>
<li>While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.</li>
<li>The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.</li>
</ul>


On 7 October, Hang Seng announced the conclusions of the market consultation to increase the number of Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) constituents from 30 to 50.
While most of the proposals will be implemented as proposed, a liquidity requirement has been tightened, and revenue thresholds have been imposed for companies qualifying through the Sales Growth Stream.
The changes will be implemented in a single step at the December rebalance and that creates a lot of flow for all the index members, current and new.


HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Montage has the largest market share in a highly concentrated market.</li>
<li>The company’s revenue growth outperformed the industry average and its gross margin hit a record high.</li>
<li>However, Montage's stock price is overvalue compared to other chip manufacturers.</li>
</ul>


Montage has the largest market share in a highly concentrated market.
The company’s revenue growth outperformed the industry average and its gross margin hit a record high.
However, Montage's stock price is overvalue compared to other chip manufacturers.


Montage (6809 HK): All Good But Price - A Supplier to Hynix, Samsung, and Micron

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A lesser known Hong Kong Listed play on the AI Server Memory Supercycle</li>
<li>One of three suppliers at scale to Samung, SK Hynix and Micron</li>
<li>The recent price breakout of the post IPO trading range indicates the rerating has started</li>
</ul>


A lesser known Hong Kong Listed play on the AI Server Memory Supercycle
One of three suppliers at scale to Samung, SK Hynix and Micron
The recent price breakout of the post IPO trading range indicates the rerating has started


Tactical Trading: A Hong Kong Play on the AI Server Memory Supercycle

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$106.89, raising HK$7,043 million (US$901 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/montage-technology-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:216984" rel="noopener">Montage Technology H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/montage-technology-h-share-listing-6809-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:219421" rel="noopener">Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Montage's international and retail oversubscription rates were significantly above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Montage Technology (6809 HK) priced its H Share at HK$106.89, raising HK$7,043 million (US$901 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Montage Technology H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Valuation Insights. 
Montage's international and retail oversubscription rates were significantly above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains attractive.


Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Trading Debut

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Montage Technology (6809 HK) is target price of HK$144.1 per share, representing 35% higher than the listing price of HK$106.89.</li>
<li>To value Montage Technology, we used three comps including GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), and Rambus (RMBS US).</li>
<li>We have chosen to use a significant premium to value Montage Technology mainly due to its much stronger expected sales growth and net margins versus the comps. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Montage Technology (6809 HK) is target price of HK$144.1 per share, representing 35% higher than the listing price of HK$106.89.
To value Montage Technology, we used three comps including GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), and Rambus (RMBS US).
We have chosen to use a significant premium to value Montage Technology mainly due to its much stronger expected sales growth and net margins versus the comps. 


Montage Technology Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

China

Montage Technology is an integrated circuit (IC) design company that provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure and data centers. The company offers components for memory modules, PCIe retimers, CXL Memory eXpander Controllers, clock chips, and the Jintide server platform. Montage Technology was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, People's Republic of China.

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Montage Technology (6809 HK)

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Introduction/tightening of revenue/liquidity criteria changes the list of potential adds. Estimated one-way turnover at the Dec rebalance is 14.2%...

Brian Freitas

Montage (6809 HK): All Good But Price - A Supplier to Hynix, Samsung, and Micron

Montage has the largest market share. The company’s revenue growth outperformed the industry average and its gross margin hit a record high....

Ming Lu

Tactical Trading: A Hong Kong Play on the AI Server Memory Supercycle

A less wellknown newly listed company in Hong Kong Hong Kong-listed benefiting from the AI Memory Supercycle. Recent price breakout signaling...

Rikki Malik

Montage Technology Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Montage Technology (6809 HK) is target price of HK$144.1 per share, representing 35% higher than the listing price of...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation Conclusions, Updated Potential Adds & The Borderline Names

Introduction/tightening of revenue/liquidity criteria changes the list of potential adds. Estimated one-way turnover at the Dec rebalance is 14.2%...

Brian Freitas

Montage (6809 HK): All Good But Price - A Supplier to Hynix, Samsung, and Micron

Montage has the largest market share. The company’s revenue growth outperformed the industry average and its gross margin hit a record high....

Ming Lu

Tactical Trading: A Hong Kong Play on the AI Server Memory Supercycle

​A less wellknown newly listed company in Hong Kong Hong Kong-listed benefiting from the AI Memory Supercycle. Recent price breakout signaling...

Rikki Malik

Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Trading Debut

Montage's international and retail oversubscription rates were significantly above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains...

Arun George

Montage Technology Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Montage Technology (6809 HK) is target price of HK$144.1 per share, representing 35% higher than the listing price of...

Douglas Kim

A less wellknown newly listed company in Hong Kong Hong Kong-listed benefiting from the AI Memory Supercycle. Recent price breakout signaling...