Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions</li>
<li>Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April </li>
<li>It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core</li>
</ul>


While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions
Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April 
It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core


US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Tata Group partners with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> to supply critical EV components, positioning India as a key player in Tesla’s expansion.</li>
<li>India crosses 1 billion tonnes of coal production in FY25, driven by PSUs, private players, and 500,000 workers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> announces a Rs. 45,000 crore investment plan to expand in copper, aluminium, and specialty alumina sectors.</li>
</ul>


Tata Group partners with Tesla (TSLA US) to supply critical EV components, positioning India as a key player in Tesla’s expansion.
India crosses 1 billion tonnes of coal production in FY25, driven by PSUs, private players, and 500,000 workers.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) announces a Rs. 45,000 crore investment plan to expand in copper, aluminium, and specialty alumina sectors.


#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 28/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 3.6m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.6m barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly dropped.
US natural gas inventories fell by 80 Bcf for the week ending 28/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Aramco's 2024 net profit fell 12.4% YoY on lower crude prices and weak margins. The Trump administration gives Chevron 30 days to end Venezuelan oil operations.


[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

US banks are seeing most of their loan growth to FI's rather than to the core economy which is not positive. Bank earnings can still be good, but...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

US banks are seeing most of their loan growth to FI's rather than to the core economy which is not positive. Bank earnings can still be good, but...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

​Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/10] WTI Continues to Slide, Henry Hub Rises on Improved Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...

Mint Finance

Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...

US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Natural gas inventories fell below expectations. Aramco's 2024 profit...