Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.</li>
<li>Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.</li>
<li>Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.</li>
</ul>


The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.
Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.
Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.


Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490 million litres in 2017.</li><li>RTD tea reached its largest size ever in 2017, supported by consumers’ growing health awareness.</li><li>On-trade sales of RTD tea declined by 1% in both volume and current value terms in 2017, to JPY77.1 billion and 131 million litres.</li><li>ITO EN maintained its lead in RTD tea in 2017, with a 28% retail volume share.</li><li>Over the forecast period RTD tea will record off-trade CAGRs of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY1,743.4 billion and 7,531 million litres in 2022.</li></ul>

Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490 million litres in 2017.RTD tea reached its largest size ever in 2017, supported by consumers’ growing health awareness.On-trade sales of RTD tea declined by 1% in both volume and current value terms in 2017, to JPY77.1 billion and 131 million litres.ITO EN maintained its lead in RTD tea in 2017, with a 28% retail volume share.Over the forecast period RTD tea will record off-trade CAGRs of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY1,743.4 billion and 7,531 million litres in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Japan

<ul><li>Population decline encourages focus on value-added products and automation</li><li>Players target products at increasing number of elderly consumers</li><li>Concerns over lifestyle diseases boost interest in FFC packaged food</li><li>Consumers seek healthy vegetables amidst busy lifestyles</li></ul>

Population decline encourages focus on value-added products and automationPlayers target products at increasing number of elderly consumersConcerns over lifestyle diseases boost interest in FFC packaged foodConsumers seek healthy vegetables amidst busy lifestyles

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan  (Key Trends and Development) - Part 2

<ul><li>Sluggish growth continues with sales growth challenged by demographic trends</li><li>Health and wellness drives innovation and sales growth</li><li>Domestic leaders prove proactive in tackling challenges</li><li>Supermarkets lead but convenience stores push for share</li><li>Players use health, convenience and quality to add value in the forecast period</li></ul>

Sluggish growth continues with sales growth challenged by demographic trendsHealth and wellness drives innovation and sales growthDomestic leaders prove proactive in tackling challengesSupermarkets lead but convenience stores push for sharePlayers use health, convenience and quality to add value in the forecast period

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan - Part 1

Japan

Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. produces and sells milk and related dairy products such as ice cream and yogurt.  The Company also develops biochemical product and pharmaceutical.

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Morinaga Milk Industry Co (2264 JP)

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Japan

Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan (Key Trends and Development) - Part 2

Population decline encourages focus on value-added products and automation Players target products at increasing number of elderly...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan - Part 1

Sluggish growth continues with sales growth challenged by demographic trends Health and wellness drives innovation and sales growth Domestic...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

​Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Japan

Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan (Key Trends and Development) - Part 2

Population decline encourages focus on value-added products and automation Players target products at increasing number of elderly...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Briefing: Packaged Food in Japan - Part 1

Sluggish growth continues with sales growth challenged by demographic trends Health and wellness drives innovation and sales growth Domestic...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...