Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KUxqrU1aU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment case</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  </li>
<li>The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.</li>
<li>The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coziron-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17698:1" rel="noopener">Coziron Resources (CZR AU)</a>, which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. </li>
</ul>


Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which<a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>Stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>With China's PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.</li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
Stocks like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.
With China's PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. </li>
<li>China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.</li>
<li>We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. 
China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.
We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

<ul>
<li>Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. </li>
<li>PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  </li>
<li>We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. </li>
</ul>


Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 


Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Aurizon, CSL, Bluescope Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Aurizon, CSL, Bluescope Steel.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 30th): Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac

Australia

Mount Gibson Iron Limited is an iron ore exploration and production company. The Company holds mining leases covering hematite and magnetite deposits at Mount Gibson in Western Australia.

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Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU)

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

We summarize Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presentation at the 2025 Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong. With production imminently tripling, FEX can...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?

The iron ore market is range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How do...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

We analyze the primary drivers of the iron ore price. This week, we cover the TSF (Total Social Financing) number, which has not shown any sign of...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

With iron ore prices breaking below 95 USD/ton, we become more bearish in the short term. We track indicators like mill margins, inventories, and...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 30th): Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia Bank, Westpac

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Woodside Energy, National Australia...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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