Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 8th April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shareholders overwhelmingly <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240408/pdf/06297mn340tk8x.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)</a>/Gina Rhinehart's Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.</li>
<li>Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.</li>
<li>An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas (LYC AU)</a>. Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.</li>
</ul>


On the 8th April, Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Gina Rhinehart's Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.
Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.
An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in Lynas (LYC AU). Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.


Azure Min's (AZS AU)'s "Boost" As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. </li>
<li>Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.</li>
<li>Gina Rhinehart's Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.</li>
</ul>



Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. 
Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.
Gina Rhinehart's Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in MP Materials (MP US) earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.


Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC winning with Nvidia's business, beating Samsung due to TSMC's advanced packaging technology; this highlights the rising importance and complexity of chip packaging.</li>
<li>China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers. We identify two potential plays.</li>
<li>Nanya Technology Earnings: DRAM market has bottomed, sees industry improvement ahead. We see a trading Long opportunity.</li>
</ul>


TSMC winning with Nvidia's business, beating Samsung due to TSMC's advanced packaging technology; this highlights the rising importance and complexity of chip packaging.
China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers. We identify two potential plays.
Nanya Technology Earnings: DRAM market has bottomed, sees industry improvement ahead. We see a trading Long opportunity.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.
There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

<ul><li>Amidst Escalating Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, both countries are looking to shore up key raw materials and metals in a bid to bolster their supply chains.</li><li>While commodity prices continue to soar globally, Rare Earth Materials have recently been getting a lot of attention, as a result of huge supply shortages and elevated demand across key industries such as EVs &amp; consumer technology.</li><li>Rare Earths miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108" rel="noopener">MP Materials Corp (MP US)</a> seems to be getting the interest of investors on account of the shortage. Can the company capitalize on the current demand and help improve local supply chains?</li></ul><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></div>

Amidst Escalating Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, both countries are looking to shore up key raw materials and metals in a bid to bolster their supply chains.While commodity prices continue to soar globally, Rare Earth Materials have recently been getting a lot of attention, as a result of huge supply shortages and elevated demand across key industries such as EVs &amp; consumer technology.Rare Earths miner MP Materials Corp (MP US) seems to be getting the interest of investors on account of the shortage. Can the company capitalize on the current demand and help improve local supply chains?

Can This Rare Earth Miner Disrupt China’s Longstanding Dominance?

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Azure Min's (AZS AU)'s "Boost" As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

Trading wide at a gross spread of 7.5%. This is a BUY. Is the market really thinking FIRB would block a Rinehart/Chilean JV to prevent a Chinese...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Strong government and shareholder support. Confirmation of talks with key player. New facility fully operational. This looks worth dipping your toe...

David Blennerhassett

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM

China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

No adds/deletes for REMX in December. Free float and capping changes will be implemented at the close on 16 December resulting in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Can This Rare Earth Miner Disrupt China’s Longstanding Dominance?

Amidst Escalating Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, both countries are looking to shore up key raw materials and metals in a bid to...

subSPAC

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Azure Min's (AZS AU)'s "Boost" As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

Trading wide at a gross spread of 7.5%. This is a BUY. Is the market really thinking FIRB would block a Rinehart/Chilean JV to prevent a Chinese...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Strong government and shareholder support. Confirmation of talks with key player. New facility fully operational. This looks worth dipping your toe...

David Blennerhassett

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM

China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

No adds/deletes for REMX in December. Free float and capping changes will be implemented at the close on 16 December resulting in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Can This Rare Earth Miner Disrupt China’s Longstanding Dominance?

Amidst Escalating Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, both countries are looking to shore up key raw materials and metals in a bid to...

subSPAC

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes