Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> is a global information technology (IT) services and consulting company that specializes in providing cloud and cognitive services to help enterprises undergo digital transformation. </li>
<li>It is majority-owned by the Blackstone Group, one of the world's largest private equity firms.</li>
<li>Key forensic takeaways include hints of aggressive revenue booking via unbilled receivables, risk of goodwill impairment, etc.</li>
</ul>



Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) is a global information technology (IT) services and consulting company that specializes in providing cloud and cognitive services to help enterprises undergo digital transformation. 
It is majority-owned by the Blackstone Group, one of the world's largest private equity firms.
Key forensic takeaways include hints of aggressive revenue booking via unbilled receivables, risk of goodwill impairment, etc.


Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In February 2026, major brokerages including Jefferies and CLSA have aggressively de-rated the Indian IT sector, citing "Agentic AI" as a structural disruptor.</li>
<li>Managed services (22-45% of revenue) face severe deflationary pressure as AI agents automate coding and maintenance. This shifts the revenue mix toward volatile consulting, risking a 30-65% further valuation de-rating.</li>
<li>AI represents a double-edged sword, deflationary and disruptive to legacy high-margin models but catalytic for innovation and outcome-based value creation. Investors should adopt a selective stance while analysing.</li>
</ul>


In February 2026, major brokerages including Jefferies and CLSA have aggressively de-rated the Indian IT sector, citing "Agentic AI" as a structural disruptor.
Managed services (22-45% of revenue) face severe deflationary pressure as AI agents automate coding and maintenance. This shifts the revenue mix toward volatile consulting, risking a 30-65% further valuation de-rating.
AI represents a double-edged sword, deflationary and disruptive to legacy high-margin models but catalytic for innovation and outcome-based value creation. Investors should adopt a selective stance while analysing.


From Headcount to Agents: Structural Change in Indian IT Industry

<ul>
<li>Q2FY26 results show a "stabilizing" sector, but this was a illusion. The 30-90 bps margin beat was gifted almost entirely by a 3.6% INR depreciation.</li>
<li>The aggregate numbers hide a structural bifurcation. Tier-1 players like TCS face GenAI "productivity headwinds", forcing "involuntary attrition". Agile Mid-Tiers like Coforge and Persistent are monetizing AI and winning share.</li>
<li>Investors can no longer buy "the IT sector." The Q2 results prove it's a tale of two industries, a choice between leaders facing a painful transition and high-growth, high-premium challengers.</li>
</ul>


Q2FY26 results show a "stabilizing" sector, but this was a illusion. The 30-90 bps margin beat was gifted almost entirely by a 3.6% INR depreciation.
The aggregate numbers hide a structural bifurcation. Tier-1 players like TCS face GenAI "productivity headwinds", forcing "involuntary attrition". Agile Mid-Tiers like Coforge and Persistent are monetizing AI and winning share.
Investors can no longer buy "the IT sector." The Q2 results prove it's a tale of two industries, a choice between leaders facing a painful transition and high-growth, high-premium challengers.


Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

<ul>
<li>A U.S. executive order, "Project Firewall" has imposed a substantial one-time fee of USD100,000 on new H-1B visa applications, directly impacting the primary talent pipeline for Indian IT services firms.</li>
<li>This policy change represents a catalyst that will accelerate Indian IT companies towards higher offshore delivery and greater local hiring in the United States, thereby reshaping their global operating models.</li>
<li>The initial panic has eased, the fee is now seen as manageable, with its real impact unfolding through profitability pressures and evolving talent strategies amid tighter regulations.</li>
</ul>


A U.S. executive order, "Project Firewall" has imposed a substantial one-time fee of USD100,000 on new H-1B visa applications, directly impacting the primary talent pipeline for Indian IT services firms.
This policy change represents a catalyst that will accelerate Indian IT companies towards higher offshore delivery and greater local hiring in the United States, thereby reshaping their global operating models.
The initial panic has eased, the fee is now seen as manageable, with its real impact unfolding through profitability pressures and evolving talent strategies amid tighter regulations.


Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

India

Mphasis Limited is a global IT and BPO service provider to G2000 companies around the globe, assists its clients in innovating and streamlining their business processes by offering custom solutions for technology and operations outsourcing. The Company focuses on financial services, logistics and technology verticals.

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Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)

Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue

Mphasis Ltd is a global IT services company specializing in cloud and cognitive services. Forensic concerns revolve around revenue booking and...

Nitin Mangal

From Headcount to Agents: Structural Change in Indian IT Industry

Major brokerages de-rate Indian IT sector due to "Agentic AI" disruption, shifting revenue mix towards consulting and risking further valuation de...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...

Nimish Maheshwari

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue

​Mphasis Ltd is a global IT services company specializing in cloud and cognitive services. Forensic concerns revolve around revenue booking and...

Nitin Mangal

From Headcount to Agents: Structural Change in Indian IT Industry

​Major brokerages de-rate Indian IT sector due to "Agentic AI" disruption, shifting revenue mix towards consulting and risking further valuation de...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on The Great IT Bifurcation: Why TCS Is Downsizing While Coforge Soars

​Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report on H-1B Visa Impact: Can Brain Drain in US Become Brain Gain for India?

​US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...

Nimish Maheshwari

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Mphasis Ltd is a global IT services company specializing in cloud and cognitive services. Forensic concerns revolve around revenue booking and...

Major brokerages de-rate Indian IT sector due to "Agentic AI" disruption, shifting revenue mix towards consulting and risking further valuation de...

Q2FY26 results reveal a deceptive stability in the IT sector, with Tier-1 players facing challenges while agile Mid-Tiers capitalize on AI,...

US executive order imposes $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, pushing Indian IT firms towards offshore delivery and local hiring in the US, reshaping...