Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last night, MSC published index changes due at the August rebalance. There will be no changes to SA constituents.</li>
<li>The rebalance is set to take place at the end of the month on Friday the 30th.</li>
<li>Tomorrow after the HK close, Tencent is expected to report results for 2Q FY24.</li>
</ul>


Last night, MSC published index changes due at the August rebalance. There will be no changes to SA constituents.
The rebalance is set to take place at the end of the month on Friday the 30th.
Tomorrow after the HK close, Tencent is expected to report results for 2Q FY24.


Tencent to Report 2Q FY24 Results (What Is Priced?), MSC Index Changes for Aug Rebalance Published

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Global indices are due for rebalancing during the closing auction on Friday. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.</li>
<li>In this note we flag <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-price-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27680:1" rel="noopener">Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/african-rainbow-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25078:1" rel="noopener">African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ)</a> as possible additions to the South Africa index.</li>
<li>Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.</li>
</ul>


Global indices are due for rebalancing during the closing auction on Friday. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.
In this note we flag Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ) &amp; African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ) as possible additions to the South Africa index.
Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.


Aug 24 Indices Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

<ul>
<li>In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.</li>
<li>We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).</li>
<li>If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.</li>
</ul>


In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.
We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).
If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.


Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

South Africa

Mr. Price Group Limited operates chains of retailers throughout South Africa. The Group retails clothing, accessories, homewares and jewelery.

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Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Tencent to Report 2Q FY24 Results (What Is Priced?), MSC Index Changes for Aug Rebalance Published

Tencent is due to report 2Q FY24 results tomorrow. In this insight we explore what is priced and how Tencent has performed relative to peers since...

DMA

Aug 24 Indices Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

In this note we flag MRP and ARI as possible additions to the SA index, given the relative outperformance of the local market and at an individual...

DMA

Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

We explore the recent takeover bid by BHP and potential JSE index effects of a takeover or restructuring that would see Amplats and Kumba unbundled.

DMA

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