Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates - Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement - Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.</li>
<li>Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.</li>
<li>Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.</li>
</ul>


Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) - Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Japan

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

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MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP)

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates - Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake to below 50%. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement - Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake to below 50%. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) - Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang

Shin-Etsu Chem will buy 1% of shares in a Tender Offer Buyback. This highlights ShinEtsu is cash-rich, has crossholders who are selling and will...

Travis Lundy

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